<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Stefan’s Substack]]></title><description><![CDATA[My personal Substack]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com</link><image><url>https://www.stefan8.com/img/substack.png</url><title>Stefan’s Substack</title><link>https://www.stefan8.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 11:18:40 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.stefan8.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[stefan8@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[stefan8@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[stefan8@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[stefan8@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Renewed Commitment and Dailiberate Discomforts]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why I'm back and my theory of daily habits...]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/renewed-commitment-and-dailiberate</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/renewed-commitment-and-dailiberate</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2025 02:39:35 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/0hpUwmo5VFU" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear readers, all 3 of you,</p><p>Hello again!  </p><p>Start tiny.  Do it daily.  I&#8217;ve figured this out with a few resolutions, but writing and publishing?  This goal remains elusive.  Stubbornly, elusive...</p><p>My failed writing resolution has now attained new <em>urgency</em>.  I&#8217;ve been haranguing my eldest daughter to get on with her writing habit, and she&#8217;s now of an age to agree to things - <em>conditionally</em>.  Sadly, I must increasingly practice what I preach.  So with this post, here&#8217;s to my renewed commitment... </p><p>I mentioned success with some other resolutions.  For example:</p><ol><li><p>morning activation routine.   Every morning, before allowing myself any digital or caloric consumption, I do the following less-than-five-minute exercise:</p><ul><li><p>90 second plank --&gt; 25 push-ups --&gt; 90 second plank --&gt; 25 pushups, <em>while singing!</em></p></li></ul></li></ol><p>if I have time, I also add in some lunge squats and 45 second single-leg-stands with my eyes closed.</p><ol start="2"><li><p>Chinese reading and speaking routine.  I try to spend at least 10 minutes a day reading a news article in Chinese and speaking in Chinese.  Because of all of my travel, the conversation these days is often with ChatGTP or with Grok.</p></li></ol><p>Warming up my core and chords has become a first-thing-in-the-morning feeling that I now crave.  It started in November 2024.  I was traveling like crazy and had not prepared a performance for our annual Christmas party.  Sure, it&#8217;s mostly about the kids&#8217; performances, but parents are expected to lead by example.  Since my singing is terrible, I thought I would make it more interesting by combining it with a plank and push-ups.  Surprisingly, the plank seems to have made me a slightly better singer.</p><p>Dailiberate Discomfort - that&#8217;s the name for my theory of habits.  They should be daily, done with deliberate (mindful) disposition, and there needs to be slight discomfort on the journey to improvement.  Indeed, these routines remain tough to do every day that I do them.  If these <em>dailiberate discomforts</em> required a longer time commitment, I&#8217;d probably lack the discipline to practice them daily.</p><p>Here&#8217;s me singing &#23396;&#21191;&#32773; by &#38515;&#22869;&#36805; in December 2024 and Bad Habits by Ed Sheeran in February 2025.</p><p>Until next week....</p><p>Stefan</p><div id="youtube2-0hpUwmo5VFU" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;0hpUwmo5VFU&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/0hpUwmo5VFU?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div id="youtube2-ZJkIwzd42Po" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;ZJkIwzd42Po&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/ZJkIwzd42Po?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[July 14 Post. Cottesloe beachside sleep, why it's good to thank your kids, tyrannical Edwardian liberals, the Iran v Saudi competition]]></title><description><![CDATA[Hello everyone. In this post:]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/july-14-post-cottesloe-beachside</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/july-14-post-cottesloe-beachside</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 Aug 2024 02:23:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello everyone.&nbsp; In this post:</p><ul><li><p>week of July 14 and why I love the Cottesloe Beach Hotel in Perth, even though the single elevator is broken and the shower floods the whole bathroom.</p></li><li><p>my essay (apparently controversial) about why we should thank our kids for making us a better person.&nbsp; What do you think?</p></li><li><p>a mini-rant about left-leaning liberals and the social chaos (think: San Fran) that is caused by their pathological propensity to avoid conflict with their own tribe, inspired by an insightful article by FT columnist Janan Ganesh.</p></li><li><p>my review of Black Wave, a book by Kim Ghattas, that documents the rivalry between power-hungry zealots in Iran and Saudi Arabia, starting in 1979, that has turbo-charged the global radicalization of Islam and destroyed the lives of millions.</p></li></ul><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p><strong>Week of July 14, 2024</strong></p><p>I was back in POM for a few days, and then in PERth.&nbsp; Qantas (QF) to POM, Virgin Australia (VA) to PER and CX back to TPE.&nbsp; The QF flights were late and crew was grumpy.&nbsp; The VA flight was also late but crew was bubbly.&nbsp; Funny how being immersed in an optimistic environment matters in every context.&nbsp; The CX flights were on a full B777 to HKG and an empty A350 to TPE.</p><p>The big PNG-related news of the week was of the Petroleum Minister being charged with domestic assault (a second time, apparently), this time by a Sydney court.&nbsp; He's out on bail and denies the charges.</p><p>In Perth I stayed at my favorite hotel, the cheerful yet dilapidated Cottesloe Ocean Beach Hotel (OBH), built in 1935 in what is described as an "Inter-War Functionalist Style" (i.e., concrete-ugly with grudging charm).&nbsp; I love falling asleep with the sound of the ocean surf, just across the street.&nbsp; The single hotel elevator wasn't working, the shower door failed to stop water from leaking all over the bathroom, but the sleep and in-room coffee were both great.&nbsp; </p><p>The owner of OBH has been fighting with local council for years to tear down the property and build a modern, taller hotel.&nbsp; As is the case in most affluent neighborhoods, local&nbsp;councils tend to be xenophobic to anything that might result in higher density and people from outside their tribe living in their back yard.&nbsp; This frame of mind has turned Perth into a suburban sprawl of only 2 million people, but stretched out over 160 kilometers of coastline.&nbsp; Massive amounts of state funding go towards providing subsidized infrastructure,&nbsp; water and other services for almost everyone to live the dream.&nbsp;&nbsp; It's impossible to provide good public transport in this type of a dream set-up, so you need a car.&nbsp; Rush hour traffic and commute times are worse than in Taipei, Hong Kong or Singapore, but not quite Jakartesque.</p><p>Anyway, Cottesloe is nice.&nbsp; Regardless of time of year, I'll go for an early morning dip in the cold ocean and for a beach-side run.&nbsp; I went on two 10k runs on this trip, both at my new pace of under 6 min/km. </p><p><strong>So you've thanked your spouse for making you a better person, how about your kids?</strong></p><p>I wrote this essay three months ago, but never published it. I truly believe my kids have made me a better person, and that it's important for me to acknowledge them.&nbsp; But one of my early readers viscerally disagreed with me, for reasons I have yet to comprehend.&nbsp; What do you think?&nbsp; <a href="https://www.stefan8.com/p/so-youve-become-a-better-person-and">Read the essay here</a>.</p><p><strong>Liberal elites and their damn(ing) aversion to conflict</strong></p><p>FT columnist Janan Ganesh finally put to words my biggest frustration with the US Democratic party, their pathological avoidance of conflict <em>within their tribe</em>.&nbsp; This essay does a great job flagging one of the biggest flaws of the left-leaning kumbaya jet-set.&nbsp; There seems to be a growing recognition that enough-is-enough, with popular book titles such as "The Courage to be Disliked", "The Art of Saying No" and "Woke, Inc.", but it might take a Republican win of the next US election before "leaders" of left-leaning parties in the G7 get the memo, or are ousted.&nbsp; Check out these excerpts:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic" width="1200" height="1200" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1200,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:206766,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2i1G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5105139c-92b9-4135-a246-865e288ecfe3_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic" width="1100" height="1100" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1100,&quot;width&quot;:1100,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:164852,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IhHb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd1aa65e-65d9-4331-a345-60b8f2567ffb_1100x1100.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic" width="1200" height="1200" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1200,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:219085,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBfY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8dd161af-fbb8-46ff-a63d-7d6e7430380e_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>If you have an FT subscription, you can read the article <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d431b97f-7431-4066-bd80-9dab3b215fea">here</a>.</p><p><strong>Book review: Black Wave, by Kim Ghattas. Score: 8.5/10</strong></p><p>Black Wave chronicles the cold-war between Iran and Saudi Arabia that started in the late 1970s and continues to this day.  I enjoyed the book.  <a href="https://www.stefan8.com/p/review-log">Read my review of the book here.</a></p><p><strong>Finally, a few photos&#8230;</strong></p><p>Cottesloe beach, looking North</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic" width="1456" height="864" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:864,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:981229,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vF-q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6dcbcd95-5125-4bc7-b32e-2cfbdcb35341_2438x1447.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Cottesloe beach, right across the street from the Ocean Beach Hotel</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic" width="1456" height="868" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:868,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2746371,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BKC1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c71bdea-60cc-45ba-9edf-83ddff1e971c_4030x2403.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>CX A350 for my HKG-TPE segment. My favorite plane, my favorite airline.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic" width="1456" height="1103" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1103,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2155885,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dMiE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1a1a0d3-f536-4e6a-87cd-e43e83b9c31b_3959x3000.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Until ma&#241;ana,</p><p>Stefan</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading my Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[So, You’ve Become a Better Person and Thanked Your Spouse. What about your Kids?]]></title><description><![CDATA[WOP XII assignment 2: A piece of Advice.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/so-youve-become-a-better-person-and</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/so-youve-become-a-better-person-and</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 Aug 2024 01:26:38 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Have you had any friends that, after becoming parents, feel compelled to tell you how great it is to be a mom or dad?&nbsp; If a friend tells you this before you have become a parent, this can be a challenging test of friendship.&nbsp; You must respond diplomatically and suppress an uncontrolled laugh-attack as you reflect on your friend&#8217;s new disheveled state and the chaos of their living room.</p><p>But now that I&#8217;m a dad, I understand that transformational feeling.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>But there is still one big problem with the message:&nbsp; parents are blasting this heart-felt declaration to everyone except the ONE audience that needs to hear it the most: their own kids.</p><p>I believe that powerful feelings of responsibility, trust and love are unleashed if once in a while you can&nbsp; earnestly tell your child:&nbsp; &#8220;I really want to thank you, because you make me a better person.&#8221;&nbsp;</p><p>The few times I&#8217;ve said this to my kids they&#8217;ve been surprised.&nbsp; So I&#8217;ve then explained how their observational insights often amaze me, and how much I treasure these moments of reflection.</p><p>I think we parents have an obligation to close the gaps that sometimes develop between us and our children.&nbsp; And this message of acknowledgement should be an important message to preface conversations about ourselves and our family. &nbsp; There is only one culture that I think truly matters, and that is the culture of my nuclear family.  It requires constant nurturing.&nbsp; It&#8217;s alive and <em>influenced</em> by each of my family members. Right now, my wife and I have the most influence in our family culture, but this naturally should become more balanced over time, if we want to keep it <em>real</em>.</p><p>Oh, I think there is one other prerequisite to everything I&#8217;ve said here.&nbsp; You have to have a relationship of deep respect with your spouse.&nbsp; If you don&#8217;t have that, your children are likely to be unsettled by your conflicts and you&#8217;ve probably weaponized them in your years of competition to have them be more emotionally attached to you than your spouse, which has also made you emotionally manipulative&#8230; but I digress&#8230;</p><p>I have to caveat all of these ideas with humility - my children aren&#8217;t even teenagers yet.  How will I reflect on this essay in a few years as my family navigates the stormy seas of adolescence?</p><p>In spite of much talk about empowerment, kids really don&#8217;t have much power, and they know it. They have no voting rights, they're not allowed into many places, they are patronized in conversation on a daily basis, they&#8217;re told that they are cute or darling even when they hate being either, and generally have almost no control of how their time is spent.&nbsp; They didn&#8217;t choose their parents, their country or their religion.&nbsp; They are told to listen to teachers and relatives, but these people often make no sense. Of all the people in the world that most pre-teen kids, or at least my pre-teen kids, would most like to have a conversation with and just <em>do stuff with</em>, it is their parents.</p><p>I try to remind my children to speak up when they see lousy behavior from me or my wife. Truth is, they see lousy behavior more often than I&#8217;d like to admit.&nbsp; But if we don't ask our kids to critically reflect on our mediocre moments and call it out, they may actually think those lousy behaviors are OK.</p><p>I believe that thanking your children provides a profound acknowledgement that they can understand.&nbsp; It has the potential to empower your children to become confident and responsible of how they have an impact on your growth.&nbsp;</p><p>My kids are small, but I know they feel big when I tell them with full honesty, "I love you and thank you for making me a better person."</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[1st July Newsletter. SIN POM]]></title><description><![CDATA[I'm writing from the clubhouse of the Royal Port Moresby Golf Club, sipping on a PNG No.1 hot milk tea, under the loud whirr of ceiling fans, looking over lush rolling hills from the comfort of a shaded verandah.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/1st-july-newsletter-sin-pom</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/1st-july-newsletter-sin-pom</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 14 Jul 2024 00:59:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I'm writing from the clubhouse of the Royal Port Moresby Golf Club, sipping on a PNG No.1 hot milk tea, under the loud whirr of ceiling fans, looking over lush rolling hills from the comfort of a shaded verandah.&nbsp; </p><p>Prime Minister James Marape's house is at the top of a hill just across the entrance to the club.&nbsp; Several times a week his entourage rolls over for a quick round.&nbsp; I enjoy sitting here to write, read and work, while my colleague navigates the course, collecting precious political, social and economic perspectives.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>This week I've been in Singapore and POM (Port Moresby's airport code, and nickname).&nbsp; I Flew TPE-SIN on an Eva B777-300 (good flight, but spotted a roach in the cabin), SIN-BNE on an SQ A350-900 (my favorite plane, but it's so quiet that I struggled to sleep because of the noisy cabin crew in the galley), QF B737-800 BNE-POM (all good, though my check-in luggage arrived a day late).&nbsp; My schedule over the next few days is up in the air.&nbsp; I'm hoping to be able to somehow swing by SYD to see my friend K who has been fighting an epic medical battle for the past 7 months.</p><p>'Increasingly Fragile.'&nbsp; That's the situation here.&nbsp; Seemingly: perpetually, increasingly, fragile.&nbsp; Obviously, that continues until the fall-apart moment.&nbsp; Not there yet... and predicting <em>when</em> seems to be a futile exercise.&nbsp; Perhaps it's because to survive here, regardless of whether you're a politician, consular staff, investor, aid-provider or auditor, requires a metamorphosis to entrepreneur.&nbsp; But the thing with entrepreneurs, besides the grit, is the bounding optimism.&nbsp; And in hot sweaty tropics, the optimism seems to be on steroids, thanks to pheromones and golf socials that often slip into three days of perfect-sunset, happy existentialism.</p><p>One proposal: that all investors from OECD countries with over $50m in annual revenue publish monthly public accounts in a common format and with 10 years of history showing how much they've paid that month in taxes, royalties, donations, payments to state-owned companies and payments to companies controlled by politically exposed persons.&nbsp; The more opaque this disclosure is, the more all of the above payments are better described as legal facilitation fees.</p><p>I have a new goal, which is to be able to run a half-marathon in under 2 hours by this October, and by then to consistently run a 10K at under 50 minutes.&nbsp; In 2023 I became a bit over-obsessed with zone-2 training.&nbsp; It was great for the heart rate, but I became very slow, running at around a 7 min/km pace.&nbsp; I'm now using the Nike Run Club app, which relies on interval training and fantastic coaching audio tracks to help improve speed and endurance.&nbsp; I'm four weeks into a 14 week program.&nbsp; I've brought my 10k pace to sub 6 min/km and I think I'll be able to get to my target by October 6, the day I'll be helping Klaus in the Kenting half Iron-Man triathlon.&nbsp; I'll be doing the swim (2 km) and run (21km), with Klaus doing the bike (90km).&nbsp; If I can do the swim + run in under 2 hours and 40 minutes, I'll accept his invitation to pay for the event.&nbsp; If I'm slower than this, I pay.</p><p>Another recent goal has been to finally start sleeping at least 7 hours a night.&nbsp; Last month I went for my annual full health-check.&nbsp; It went well, but my blood pressure was on the high end of normal, and I'm wondering if contributing factors could be my long-standing lack of sleep, and age.&nbsp; My average daily sleep for as long I've been tracking it (about 6 years), and probably for the last 25 years, has been under 6 hours per night.&nbsp; This week, with the travel and dinners, hasn't been great at 6 hours and 16 minutes, though the last month has been good.&nbsp; My year-to-date stat has just inched over the 6 hour mark at 6 hours and 6 minutes. I've given myself a restriction, which is: no coffee unless my daily, weekly and monthly sleep is &gt;7 hours/night.&nbsp; I am seriously really missing my oat milk flat-white.</p><p>Speaking of habits, I have a mini daily habit that I've been doing for about 7 months now.&nbsp; It takes me less than 5 minutes and I do it every day, usually in the morning before showering. This is it: 90 second plank &gt; 30 push-ups &gt; 90 second plank &gt; 30-push ups.&nbsp; All with no breaks.&nbsp; This is where I'm at with this habit:&nbsp; the second set is still sloppy.&nbsp; I can complete the second plank, but form doesn't look too good and I sometimes cheat by pushing my butt up to form an arc.&nbsp; And I have not yet been able to do a clean second set of push-ups.&nbsp; Work in progress...</p><p>I recently finished listening to the book Fluent Forever, by Gabriel Wyner.&nbsp; I wish I'd read it a long time ago.&nbsp; After almost 30 years of neglect, my Chinese improved after moving to Taipei in February 2020, but not enough.&nbsp; My accent and my tones are terrible. My kids hate hearing me speak.&nbsp; This book made me reflect on my bad pronunciation and my hypocritical disregard to improve it.&nbsp; Hypocritical, because I remember how much I disliked hearing my father's gringo accent in Spanish, and how annoyed I'd get that my mother never made an effort to speak understandable English (she got seriously offended about 20 years ago when I hired her an English accent teacher).&nbsp; Fluent Forever makes the strong case that learning correct accent and intonation is a critical first step.&nbsp; The book's premise seems to be 'fake it before you make it.'&nbsp; You first fake the fluency by sounding really &amp;^%$ genuine, and by focusing on learning the most frequently-used words and phrases.&nbsp; I'm convinced.</p><p>Here's a log of other recent things I've read or heard:</p><ol><li><p>Black Wave by Kim Ghattas (8.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Abejas Grises por Andrei Kurkok (7/10)</p></li><li><p>Chip War by Charles Miller (7.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Glucose Revolution (audio book) by Jessie Inchauspe (8/10)</p></li><li><p>Prairie Lotus by Linda Sue Park (7.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Smoke &amp; Ashes by Amitav Ghosh (8.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Ready Player One by Ernest Cline (8.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Murder at the Vicarage by Agatha Christie (8/10)</p></li><li><p>Fluent Forever (audio book) by Gabriel Wyner (8.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Thief of Always by by Clive Barker (8/10)</p></li><li><p>excerpts from&nbsp; Far From the Tree by Andrew Solomon (6.5/10)</p></li><li><p>Interview of the Gottman Doctors on Diary of a CEO Podcast (9/10)</p></li><li><p>Interview of Jonathan Haidt re Anxious Generation on Rich Roll Podcast (8.5/10)</p></li></ol><p>Finally, a thought I had on one of my recent runs:&nbsp; "Culture" is a polite word for "Tribe"</p><p>It's always great to hear from you, my friend.&nbsp; I hope you've been well.&nbsp; </p><p>I'm really pleased to now have serious pressure to write more frequently.&nbsp; My eldest daughter has started her own substack.&nbsp; Here's to the weekly substack... </p><p>Finally, a picture of the penalty categories at the Royal Port Moresby Golf Club&#8230;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic" width="560" height="683.0769230769231" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1776,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:560,&quot;bytes&quot;:692343,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UmSH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85e5c5e8-7fa7-4402-bb62-77bf17be2943_2485x3032.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Best wishes,</p><p>S</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Back from Peru]]></title><description><![CDATA[Hello! I just got back from an extended family vacation exploring Southern Peru.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/back-from-peru</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/back-from-peru</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 Feb 2024 07:06:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello!&nbsp; I just got back from an extended family vacation exploring <strong>Southern Peru</strong>.</p><p>My family's world-view is mostly formed from living in <strong>Taiwan</strong>, <strong>Hong Kong</strong> and <strong>Singapore</strong>.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>But Peru is another world.&nbsp; Driving over multiple passes over 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) of altitude, we saw <strong>wild flamingoes</strong>, roaming herds of <strong>llama</strong>, got stopped by police nearly 10 times (once for a valid reason), ate well, met wonderful people, explored numerous <strong>Inca</strong> and <strong>pre-Inca</strong> ruins, and had many contemplative conversations about <strong>culture, conquest, civilization, geography, commodities</strong> and <strong>migration</strong>.&nbsp; </p><p>If you're into road trips, you really need to add "<strong>Peru road trip</strong>" to your travel bucket-list (a few photos at the bottom this note).</p><p>Driving long distance in Peru might actually be safer for foreigners than for locals, especially if you're from Lima. Peru is very socially polarized, and it's pretty obvious that once you're in the <em>sierra</em>, <em>Lime&#241;os</em> from the capital are not popular.&nbsp; Since Peru's final battle for independence 200 years ago, Peru's political elite in Lima has consistently failed to deliver prosperity or even basic services to most of Andean Peru.&nbsp;</p><p>Peru, with all of its gold and copper and a 500-year history of foreign prospecting, must rank as one of the grand-daddy's of resource-cursed countries.&nbsp; Almost 50 years ago (1980) the Maoist revolutionary movement known as the <em>Cendero Luminoso</em> (Shining Path) exploited these social injustices with tragic consequences that nearly tore the country apart and killed tens of thousands. Today many of the grievances remain unresolved. People in the sierra were very friendly, even the cops that stopped us and pondered what to make of this Spanish speaker with a Taiwan international driving license, but the resentment towards <em>Lime&#241;os</em> and generations of institutional segregation was palpable. </p><p>But I am optimistic about things getting better for most Peruvians, most likely for foolish reasons typical of a short-term tourist.&nbsp; Why? </p><ol><li><p>I believe Peru's population will peak in 2025 resulting in a gradual shift towards labor scarcity and higher wages that will disproportionally benefit the poor.&nbsp; I think the Government is incorrect in its peak-population assessment by 41 years, thinking this peak will only happen in 2066.&nbsp; Though the misallocated budgeting implications of this error are definitely not credit-positive for the country, I think most working-age people will benefit;</p></li><li><p>I believe that in Peru the benefits of AI will outweigh threats, as AI applications will have the potential to finally deliver quality education to the neglected majority; </p></li><li><p>I believe Peru will overall fare better than many countries as a result of climate change. Although Peru faces big challenges from depleting water tables, flash floods, and warming sea temperatures, most people live well above sea-level and the country has many potential alternative places for migration and farming.</p></li><li><p>The tourism potential for Peru remains huge, and this sector could be a much larger employer.&nbsp; Outside of Cusco and Machu Picchu, there are still very few tourists going to Peru.&nbsp; But international flight connectivity to the US and Europe is mediocre and personal safety remains a concern, certainly compared to anywhere in East Asia.</p></li></ol><p>I think one of the biggest threats to Peru (and many other emerging countries) is that we're getting closer to the day that the US and Europe will actually seal their borders and implement very large controlled-immigration programs, similar to Australia.&nbsp; These immigration programs will create a massive brain-drain effect on emerging countries because it will no longer be just the most-desperate (and often, least qualified) that are seeking to leave.</p><p>This week I've been in <strong>Singapore</strong> for Chinese New Year, and <strong>Port Moresby</strong> for work.&nbsp; I've been reading <strong>Shogun</strong>, by James Clavell.&nbsp; I look forward to finally being back in Taipei next week.</p><p>Hasta pronto, </p><p>Stefan</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic" width="1456" height="763" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:763,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:615617,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!so-k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d428103-e967-4f20-8bf3-35fe19f001e0.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic" width="1456" height="830" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:830,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3147895,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JTwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa6ccc0a8-e3cb-488c-ba5d-e64d8a4588d1.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2893604,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!edwu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0b17ce3-7572-4113-9c2a-97ec57f9d615.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic" width="1456" height="884" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:884,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1430419,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ah0S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03abad86-9663-4f25-bdb9-dc60fd6d4ae8.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic" width="1456" height="933" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:933,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:618900,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-RB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff004273d-2982-4445-91e4-5f49d4795bc8.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic" width="1456" height="2137" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:2137,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2731013,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iI7V!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F478d92ed-c134-4c3a-841a-2120890bb00c.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic" width="1456" height="868" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:868,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:710957,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oOwB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd09455a3-78bc-49b8-b351-18555e093f15.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic" width="1456" height="770" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:770,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3789723,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hFp-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52f53742-359e-4d6a-b762-693af55625e2.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic" width="1456" height="659" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:659,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:525357,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lR7e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ab5820a-f6b5-4aad-a599-7e3f7b3ca44c.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic" width="1456" height="1843" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1843,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:825744,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VP0G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F70183de0-1af4-47cc-bec8-9b6e5dd75bf7.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Another rare weekly post]]></title><description><![CDATA[Hello friends,]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/another-rare-weekly-post</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/another-rare-weekly-post</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 13 Oct 2023 19:45:02 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello friends,</p><p>Here&#8216;s a quick recap of what I&#8217;ve been up to since my last weekly newsletter to you,&nbsp; about a month ago...</p><ul><li><p>I completed my third (and hopefully last) <a href="https://www.strava.com/activities/9863696186">Grand Tour de Taipei</a> 145km bike race.&nbsp; </p></li><li><p>I finished reading <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/can-a-novel-capture-the-power-of-money">Trust</a>, by Hernando Diaz (7.5/10)</p></li><li><p>I published an essay, <a href="https://www.stefan8.com/p/why-do-i-preach-the-glory-of-risk">Why do I Preach the Glory of Risk?</a>, which I wrote for the Write of Passage (WoP) writing course </p></li><li><p>I started alternating my almost-daily runs between sprints and &#8216;zone 2&#8217; pacing</p></li><li><p>I made three trips to Brisbane to progress a transaction</p></li><li><p>I published my semi-annual list of <a href="https://www.stefan8.com/p/12-favorite-problems-october-2023">12 Favorite Problems</a>, also a Write of Passage assignment</p></li><li><p>I had lunch with my mother in law (&#8220;mum&#8221;) in Singapore, and was asked some probing questions</p></li><li><p>I met an Uber driver in Taipei really into <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3q8Od5qJio">Rammstein</a> and the Ukraine war. We let our disagreement about Ukraine get lost in translation of my lousy Chinese...</p></li><li><p>I got my kids back into a daily piano-practice and fighting routine</p></li><li><p>I structured a term sheet for an energy company looking to raise $20m in secured convertible notes</p></li><li><p>I wrote a memo about bilateral investment treaties (&#8220;BIT&#8221;), litigation funding, creeping expropriation, and how the International Court for Settlements and Disputes (&#8220;ICSID&#8221;) in Washington D.C. can enforce on the offshore assets of States gone rogue. In an era of deglobalization and resource nationalism, this might just become an exciting new asset class.</p></li><li><p>I was contacted by a Bloomberg journalist for comments on offshore USD China credits, offered some juicy and insightful soundbites to the delight of the journalist, only to then realize that she had somehow confused me for the Chief Investment Officer of a hedge fund in Singapore.</p></li></ul><p>So, my mother in law,&nbsp; "mum".&nbsp; We were at the Singapore Tanglin club for lunch, coincidentally sitting next to a gaggle of my biological mami&#8217;s friends, and the gentle volley of questions began.&nbsp; I thought I was just partaking in a no-one&#8217;s-keeping-score chit-chat before almost getting whacked by a cross-court zinger with top-spin.&nbsp; Mum reminisced that up until the moment she first met me at a lunch with my parents she had no idea her daughter had been dating me.&nbsp; I played along with that fascinating rendition of history until she then said, almost in a whisper, and rapidly while going for a last bite of chicken-rice,&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8220;Sowhenyoufirstmetmydaughter, wereyoulikeohWOWshe&#8217;s so amazing, was it like love at first sight?&#8221;&nbsp; I should have immediately exclaimed YES and for good measure recounted how upon the radiance of this beauty - in fact, a mirror image of her younger self - I inexplicably  tripped and then slammed onto a lamp-post (not true, I was actually sitting down, right next to her, on an airplane when we first met), but for some dumb reason I said something idiotic like "mum, it wasn&#8217;t quite like that - I mean, I was really impressed - but at the time she was going out with someone else."&nbsp; &#8220;Oh but that relationship was nothing serious at all, he wasn&#8217;t really a boyfriend or anything like that&#8221; my mum responded.&nbsp; Hmm, anyway, that pointless ex-boyfriend resurrection allowed me to salvage it with a true anecdote that I think paid for most of my lunch.&nbsp; Mum, I said, you&#8217;re daughter has often asked me what I would do without her, and I&#8217;ve always answered her emphatically with the exact same words: &#8220;I would shrrrivel up...&nbsp; and die!&#8221;&nbsp; Big smile on mum&#8217;s face.&nbsp; Time for dessert.&nbsp; Next.&nbsp; She&#8217;s not happy that we live in Taipei.&nbsp; It&#8217;s not just because China will attack, and it's like Singapore in the 1960s.&nbsp; Dirty.&nbsp; What about the earthquakes, and where do your kids think they&#8217;re from?&nbsp; Nothing I say, short of a firm relocation commitment, will really resolve this angst, so I just tried to find a way to emphasize all the reasons why I think Taiwan is so great for my kids.&nbsp; But where will you go if there&#8217;s war, America or Singapore?&nbsp; Of course, I fly SQ lah.. Good good.&nbsp; We shared dessert.</p><p>Quick review of Trust, by Hernando Diaz.&nbsp; Look, I liked,&nbsp; did not love.&nbsp; 7.5/10 - airport readable.&nbsp; Loved learning about 1920s stock market shenanigans.&nbsp; Brilliant twists of a story told from many perspectives.&nbsp; The hidden power of the female protagonist was thrilling, though far fetched.&nbsp; The portrayal of the billionaire - his insecurities, his emotional frailty, his propensity to start believing his own made up narratives - super believable, I've seen that with me-own-eyes in a few of the UHNW-types I've had to endure. The transformation of&nbsp; Ida, from fawning over Billionaire Benjamin Rask to seeing the cockroach side of him - very credible.&nbsp; A few favorite quotes:</p><blockquote><p><em>Most of us prefer to believe we are the active subjects of our victories but only the passive objects of our defeats. We triumph, but it is not really we who fail&#8212;we are ruined by forces beyond our control. During the last week of October 1929, it took most speculators&#8212;from the high-powered financier in downtown Manhattan to the amateur housewife trading at the San Francisco Stock Exchange&#8212;a matter of days to shift from the agents of their success, with nothing to thank but their own acumen and relentless will, to the victims of a profoundly flawed and maybe even corrupt system, which was the sole responsible for their demise. A dip in the indexes, an epidemic of fear, a selling frenzy driven by pessimism, a widespread inability to respond to margin calls . . . Whatever caused the slump that, in turn, became a panic, one thing was clear&#8212;none of those who had helped to inflate the bubble felt responsible for its bursting. They were the blameless casualties of a disaster of almost natural proportions.</em></p></blockquote><blockquote><p><em>Telephone lines had yet to reach the Institute, radio signals were too weak in that deep valley surrounded by tall mountains, and the relay system he had designed to transmit information from New York and London to Bad Pf&#228;fers was much too slow. The developments of the market reached him only as &#8220;news,&#8221; which is how the press refers to decisions made by other people in the recent past.</em></p></blockquote><blockquote><p><em>&#8220;The orchestra played the kind of music where you know what&#8217;s coming next, where you can listen ahead.&#8221; In 1929, everyone heard D F &#9839; E A and, listening ahead, thought A E F &#9839; D. But when I heard D F &#9839; E A, the response ringing in my mind was G C B &#9837; D. In &#8217;29 no bells were knelling in my mind. But looking back, this seems like an accurate allegory of what I perceived + thought. My wager against the mkt. was a fugue that would read backwards and upside down. Where every voice would result from vertical + horizontal mirroring of orig. motif. A radical version of Musik. Opfer.</em></p></blockquote><p>But, back to mum's question, of where to live next.&nbsp; Look, I've lived in places where the energy is good, where the energy is bad, and where the energy has quickly gone from good to bad.&nbsp; Conclusion: nothing beats living in a place with good energy.&nbsp; I love big cities.&nbsp; So, if at all possible, I hope I can always have the choice to live in a big city with good energy.&nbsp; At this time, Taipei is fully in the middle of that 'big city' + 'good energy' venn diagram.</p><p>Hope you've been well,</p><p>Stefan </p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[12 Favorite Problems (October 2023)]]></title><description><![CDATA[... in the spirit of Richard Feynman, my semiannual rendition of 12 Favorite Problems...]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/12-favorite-problems-october-2023</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/12-favorite-problems-october-2023</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 13 Oct 2023 18:40:34 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ol><li><p>What can I do to help my three daughters stay motivated, optimistic and independent?</p></li><li><p>How can I inspire my daughters to take risks, enjoy risk, and learn how to evaluate risks?</p></li><li><p>But, given my less-than-stellar risk-taking track-record, what on earth deludes me into thinking I could have <em>any right </em>to be parenting about <em>responsible</em> risk-taking?</p></li><li><p>And, is parenting by definition paradoxical, or is it just me?</p></li><li><p>What should I be doing to improve my professional resilience, so that my family and I can continue to enjoy exploring the world together?</p></li><li><p>What hacks should I adopt to improve my Chinese, which is improving, but way too slowly?</p></li><li><p>What can I do to contribute to Taipei and Taiwan (in addition to tax), which has given me and my family this incredible opportunity to live here?</p></li><li><p>How can I help prepare my daughters for climate events that may create havoc, without&nbsp; frightening them or making them feel guilty?</p></li><li><p>Is there any way to weave my interest in cycling and urban mobility with my experience in distress and credit?</p></li><li><p>Is there any opportunity I should explore as Taiwan faces a potential energy crisis, as it is forced to burn more coal, closes its nuclear power plants, fails to reach renewable targets, and fails to develop LNG infrastructure?</p></li><li><p>Will cool heads prevail and will an accident be avoided in the simmering tension across the Taiwan straits?</p></li><li><p>Am I making a mistake in disregarding (perhaps even disrespecting) loyalties to culture and country in the raising of my daughters?</p></li></ol>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why do I Preach the Glory of Risk?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Risk-taking is the grapefruit of life: that magical combo of bitter, sweet and zowie-sour that opens your eyes and zaps your brain with new ways of seeing.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/why-do-i-preach-the-glory-of-risk</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/why-do-i-preach-the-glory-of-risk</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 13 Oct 2023 18:02:41 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Risk-taking is the grapefruit of life: that magical combo of bitter, sweet and zowie-sour that opens your eyes and zaps your brain with new ways of seeing.&nbsp;</p><p>You go for risk in the hope of tasting glory. But what do I mean by glory?&nbsp; I mean the joy. The life.&nbsp; The deliciousness of propelling yourself far.&nbsp; Far unto unexpected new worlds.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Embarking in risk is the ultimate luxury.&nbsp; Ironically, I suspect the sadness of many rich people stems from their aversion to risk.&nbsp; But they&#8217;re not the only ones.&nbsp; We&#8217;re surrounded by naysayers reflexively conditioned to chant &#8220;don&#8217;t-do-that.&#8221; These people are destructively wrong.&nbsp; Wrong to themselves, super-wrong to their kids, crushingly bad to their friends.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>But who am I to be peddling the virtues of risk-taking, pretending to be some sort of expert in this commodity?&nbsp; I&#8217;ve been such a dumb-lucky survivor.&nbsp; Just look at my journey: polite observers might call it a bloody miracle; cynically astute critics may quip it&#8217;s more like a dark tragi-comedy.</p><p>Truth is, the cumulative trauma from risks gone-bad has at many periods in my life really crushed my soul. If I were to write an &#8220;About Risk&#8221; letter to my younger self, this is what I&#8217;d say:</p><p>In our life we face a trinity of risks: those that might kill you (Killer Risk), those that might kill your soul (Trauma Risk), versus others that will bring you joy (Glory Risk).&nbsp; You take risk because you must seek glory.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>A bit more on this trinity of risks:</p><p><strong>Glory Risk</strong> - Reason for living.&nbsp; Chasing grapefruits. Joy, deep satisfaction, hunger for new.&nbsp; It&#8217;s about striving for things that are challenging, for the hope of big personal wins.&nbsp; These challenges could be relatively superficial, or complex.&nbsp; For example, I&#8217;m now trying (mostly failing) to develop a writing habit for the personal glory I believe will come from it, but I prevent myself from publishing and taking more writing risks for fear of making a fool of myself (trauma)</p><p><br><strong>Trauma Risk</strong> - will kill your soul, <em>if you allow it</em>.&nbsp; I wish I&#8217;d learned as a 10-year-old that failure is the natural waste-product of trying.&nbsp; Obviously, try to make less waste.&nbsp; Avoid the same mistakes.&nbsp; But dwell as little as possible on how you screwed up and what others think of you.&nbsp; There is no minimum mourning period for brooding over your failures.&nbsp; The shorter the better.&nbsp; This is not to say you should be flippant about your failures.&nbsp; By all means, be contrite, reflect on it, but don&#8217;t dwell!&nbsp; <em>Truth is, nobody dwells on your foolish blunders more than you do.</em>&nbsp; But even today, I struggle to convince myself of this last point.&nbsp; These are the Trauma Risks - just because they don&#8217;t kill you physically, doesn&#8217;t mean they can&#8217;t destroy you spiritually, if you let them&#8230;</p><p><strong>Killer Risks</strong> - yeah these might kill you, or someone else.&nbsp; Obviously, avoid death.&nbsp; The funny thing about these killer risks - at least for me - is that although I&#8217;ll occasionally shudder at the stupid things that almost killed me, I&#8217;m not traumatized by these experiences, and I don&#8217;t dwell on them.&nbsp; Killer Risks might kill you physically, but they&#8217;re unlikely to do what Trauma Risks do, which is to kill your spirit.&nbsp; Many people pursue Killer Risks to experience Glory Risk, which I think is selfish to your loved ones and short-sighted if in life you&#8217;re going for the long game. I think we should try to pursue Glory Risks with low Killer Risk.</p><p></p><p>Examples of my Killer Risks (stupid stuff that was unnecessary and I fortunately survived):</p><p>Scene 1: Careening down gravel timber roads on my bicycle at over 60 km/hr in the mountainous&nbsp; jungles somewhere between ChiangRai and Vientiane. Constant rain.&nbsp; A pre googlian-era cycle journey with disintegrating paper-map.&nbsp; Lost, dehydrated, with a broken spoke, no idea where I&#8217;d sleep: temples, police stations and rudimentary hospital set-ups.&nbsp; The journey, conceptually OK, the downhill speeds: stupid.</p><p>Scene 2: Racing in the rain on a 150cc scooter after a drunken game of tennis with the doctors. Chaotic Saigon streets. In the flash of a second, wiping out and sliding across the wet asphalt, all the way onto the other side of the road.&nbsp; Amazing, no broken bones, not run over.&nbsp; Just lots of blood from surface scrapes. Stupid.</p><p>Scene 3: Convincing the pilot of a Merpati Fokker-27 Friendship traversing Kalimantan to give me the controls and take my seat back with the passengers, only to get lost due to my fear of flying straight through dark clouds.&nbsp; Seeing pilots dripping in sweat is scary.&nbsp; Crashing in Kalimantan would definitely have been a big stupid killer risk.&nbsp;</p><p>Scene 4: Various drunken episodes that surprisingly weren&#8217;t on wheels or wings, but still: stupid.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Examples of my Traumatic Risk (it&#8217;s still not easy to write about these. I&#8217;d much rather recount 10 more Killer Risks):<br></p><p>Scene 1: In 2018 I faced a perfect storm of investment disasters.&nbsp; Probably half of my portfolio was underwater.&nbsp; I managed to compound, across a portfolio in multiple dodgy jurisdictions from Kurdistan to West Perth, pretty much every investment mistake imaginable.&nbsp; My exit from the fund was surprisingly civil, perhaps because of the magical diversity of loss situations I was leaving to be explained to shocked investors in the context of systems and risk control.</p><p>Scene 2: Earlier in my career I was the advisor to a large conglomerate in the sale of their fibre-optic business to private equity funds.&nbsp; I was perpetually underslept the whole time I worked at this investment bank.&nbsp; My only social life came from the 5 jobless people hanging out in my apartment. I remember pitching the fibre-optic business to one of the biggest global PE funds and completely bungling up the sales process.</p><p>Scene 3: I was in the undergraduate honors program at my university, a select group of about 30 of us, studying together for four years.&nbsp; But I graduated without honors because my thesis paper was absolute crap.&nbsp; I got completely lost and went into a deep cave for all the writing and research, for some reason neglecting all the support available to me. It was hugely embarrassing.&nbsp; I graduated without honors and became a recluse from my honors classmates.</p><p>Scene 4: In 5th Grade I became class president of about 150 fifth graders in my school in Mexico City.&nbsp; This entailed making posters, participating in a debate and delivering a campaign speech.&nbsp; I won by a landslide, but within about 8 weeks found myself being reprimanded by a teacher (in the middle of the soccer field) and a few disgruntled students.&nbsp; Turns out I was supposed to be coordinating bake sales.&nbsp; I actually had nightmares about this failure and never mentioned it to my parents.</p><p>Recalling my Risk Traumas was scary to write, but now feels a combination of ridiculous and cathartic.&nbsp; What a shame I let them eat-away at me for so long.&nbsp; The experiences definitely dampened my confidence, risk-taking spirit and overall mojo (some may rejoice).&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>From a social economic perspective, I wonder if avoided risk-taking from fear of Trauma does more damage to potential GDP growth than Killer-Risks.&nbsp; Social productivity would be higher if we were all better trained to be more astute yet fearless risk-takers.&nbsp; For some unfortunate reason we delude ourselves into thinking that most risks entail far worse outcomes than is really the case.</p><p>So why have I written this essay?&nbsp; For myself, and for my family.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>I want my family&nbsp; to see me embarking on new ventures and learning new things;&nbsp; failing in some, succeeding in others.&nbsp; I occasionally get stressed wondering if the consulting career path I&#8217;ve chosen is too risky. I know that I need to be more strategic and astute in my risk taking.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>For my daughters, I&#8217;d like to help them learn to identify the traps of Risk Trauma. I want them to become aware of our mind&#8217;s tendency to over-amplify our failures, to pursue the art of brushing off failures, and to develop an enthusiasm for taking bigger bolder risks.&nbsp; Glory Risks.</p><p><br></p><blockquote><p><em>It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.&nbsp; The credit belongs to the [one] who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; &#8230; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at worst, if [failing], at least fails while daring greatly.</em></p><p>Theodore Roosevelt</p></blockquote><p><br><br></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><em>Thank you for suggestions and feedback from Anna KN, Abhi K, Derek W, Chris W, Ann H.</em></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Weekly Post]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back in Taipei, after a few weeks in Perth and brief stays in HK, Sydney, Brisbane and SG]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/weekly-post</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/weekly-post</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 07 Sep 2023 17:40:39 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello hello,</p><p>I was traveling for a whole month away from my family. Mostly in Australia.&nbsp; Finally made it back to Taipei last week.&nbsp; And it&#8217;s so great to be back.</p><p>Great to be spending time with my wife and kids, eating delicious home-cooked meals, putting my daughters to bed, cycling through drizzling rain, returning to my serviced-office.</p><p>The day after I returned to Taipei, I was visited by my friend Kelley, who I actually met in Taipei 31 years ago, and was now visiting from Hong Kong with her daughter.&nbsp; We enjoyed some famous beef noodles, Taiwan style ice milk-tea, and cycled around the city.&nbsp; She remarked on the magic of Taipei&#8217;s small alleys; the fun of peering into ramshackle apartments to see hanging laundry, and the relaxed pace of this city.&nbsp; I agreed.&nbsp; Taipei does often feel like a sleepy city of 10 million, and that&#8217;s meant as a compliment.</p><p>Spending a month in Australia away from family was way too long, but my spirits were kept up by great colleagues and the exciting challenge of helping to unlock a complicated corporate situation.&nbsp;</p><p>I was mostly in Perth, where I stayed at the Ocean Beach Hotel (OBH), in the beach-side suburb of Cottesloe.&nbsp; The five story and decidedly 2-star OBH is painted a faded egg-yellow that only for a brief sunset moment once-a-day glows resplendent.&nbsp; The single elevator rattles and screeches as it moves up or down.&nbsp; The sole person at the front desk, usually Cornelius, acknowledges with a smile that it should be replaced, but at least gets serviced once a month.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>My room windows have a little mechanical crank that I turn just enough to let in the sea-weed infused breeze and the sound of waves breaking onto the beach across the street. My recipe for blissful sleep.&nbsp; The rooms are kept clean by a cheerful crew of 3 early morning Filipinas. If they haven&#8217;t woken you up with their chatter as they march up and down the hallway, they&#8217;ll do so as they barge into your room (no chains or bolt-locks on these hollow planks) to tell you (regardless of your condition) they&#8217;ll just change the towels.&nbsp;</p><p>I&#8217;m usually up at 6 and go barefoot to the beach at around 6:50, the time of sun-rise. Early mornings are chilly, at around 9C (48F), and the sand is colder.&nbsp; The soles of my feet get numb as I do my 20 minute barefoot jog up and down the beach. This is the conditioning I need to then go plunging into the waves, joining a small tribe of regulars.&nbsp; About 20 meters into the water there&#8217;s usually a thick mess of not-yet washed-up seaweed.&nbsp; On days when the surf is rough, I get tangled up in it and half of it seems to somehow get into my fluorescent-green swim shorts.&nbsp; One person told me sharks like to lurk in it.&nbsp; Another that they&#8217;re attracted to contrasting colors.&nbsp; I make it through the other side of this vegetable muck and do a few dolphin-dives into the crystal clear sea, coming out to spray saltwater out of my mouth like a 5-year old - sparks of joy.&nbsp; I like the sting of the sea in my eyes and imagine the good stuff that comes from getting it into my sinuses.</p><p>My month in Australia allowed me to read-up (mostly in the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>) on a few of the current national obsessions.&nbsp; In [brackets] I&#8217;ve written my take on each of these issues.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Skyrocketing home rentals</strong> [no politicians actually care.&nbsp; The easy fix is to fast-track the re-permitting of commercial real estate into residential.&nbsp; This isn&#8217;t even being debated]</p></li><li><p><strong>Runaway inflation</strong>. [Australian Central Bank deserves a lot of blame. They&#8217;re stuck protecting the banking oligopoly of which they seem to be a Panamanian subsidiary]</p></li><li><p><strong>Deep worries about a slowdown in China</strong>. [a fully merited concern.&nbsp; Just as Australia was the best way to invest in a rising China for the last 30 years, Australia may offer the same opportunity if you want to place bets on a slowing China]</p></li><li><p><strong>Paranoia about PRC political, economic and military encroachment.</strong> [Australia should be more worried about the social and political fragility of some of its pacific neighbors, and about global warming.&nbsp; Australia&#8217;s foreign policy seems to be excessively dictated by the U.S.]</p></li><li><p><strong>High vacancies in the commercial office building sector (though no one dares call it &#8216;distress&#8217;) </strong>&nbsp;[this is not looking good, and banks are probably becoming very good at &#8216;extend and pretend&#8217;]</p></li><li><p><strong>The Australian dollar getting smashed</strong> [Australian&#8217;s can thank their Central Bank for this]</p></li><li><p><strong>The Prime Minister losing support on a referendum to grant aboriginal Australians extraordinary political representation as acknowledgement of systematic mistreatment and neglect [</strong>it&#8217;s clear that something radical needs to be done to help, but I don&#8217;t know enough about this referendum<strong>]</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p>I&#8217;d like to be writing at least one essay a week, but for now I&#8217;m just trying to crawl, with at least this - a weekly newsletter.&nbsp; Here&#8217;s to week #1.</p><p>Best wishes,</p><p>Stefan</p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.stefan8.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stefan&#8217;s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[I Nudged My Wife and 10-year-old Daughter into doing a Triathlon. They Didn’t Divorce Me (Yet). ]]></title><description><![CDATA[[WoPX assignment 1]]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/i-nudged-my-wife-and-10-year-old</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/i-nudged-my-wife-and-10-year-old</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Apr 2023 07:20:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Timing and curation. They matter so much - yet I often get them so wrong.&nbsp; If proposed too soon: outright rejection.&nbsp; If too difficult - scars and anger from first-time failure.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>I needed last week-end to succeed.&nbsp; And this would also depend on luck: good weather, no accidents, and my wife and daughter waking up on the right side of bed.&nbsp; Failure would mean a future of continued solo travel to an experience&nbsp; that I&#8217;ve so much wanted to share with my family.</p><p>A triathlon is a unique carnival of adrenaline, stress and laughter spread across swim, bike and run segments, each of which are interrupted by transitions where people like me waste incredible amounts of time realizing they&#8217;ve forgotten to pack socks, or have no water, or have put their shirt on backwards.&nbsp; Yes, it was these experiences of joy and silly mistakes that I was so eager to share. The cheering and support throughout the event, and particularly once you&#8217;ve crossed the (damn) finish line, feels so precious.&nbsp; There&#8217;s not a single time I haven&#8217;t run over that line without feelings of tearful joy.&nbsp; I really wanted them to love this, or at least understand my mini-addiction.</p><p>But roping someone into doing a triathlon can&#8217;t be forced.&nbsp; Maybe you coerce a friend into it, but not a close friend, or a loved one.&nbsp;</p><p>So how did I maneuver to get these novices to trust me (granted, with serious eye-rolls) and sign up for this?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>First, I sequenced it.&nbsp; I worked to get my daughter on-board first, knowing that my wife would be very supportive.&nbsp; I then only sprung it as a sudden &#8220;opportunity&#8221; to my wife at the last-minute.&nbsp; So my daughter had about 7 months of lead-time and my wife had 3 weeks. Perfect.&nbsp; Both, I ventured, were physically prepared and mentally able to face it.&nbsp; I think this last point is important - you should really only nudge people to new limits if you know them well.</p><p>For my daughter, the priority was to help her build up her endurance with friends in each of the sports.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>For swimming, I introduced her to the daughter of a triathlete friend of mine who&#8217;s a strong swimmer.&nbsp; They get along great.&nbsp; She agreed to join this new friend&#8217;s swim team and has now been swimming with the team twice a week for almost a year, typically swimming about 3 kilometers each training session.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>For biking, during the year I organized about 10 leisurely rides with many of my daughter&#8217;s friends to ride along Taipei&#8217;s excellent riverside paths.&nbsp; Those rides were typically between 20 and 40 kilometers long.&nbsp; WIth friends in tow, these rides are fun and not strenuous, and leave the kids feeling great about being able to cover so much distance.&nbsp;</p><p>For running, we signed up for a few family events, including an exhausting noon to sunset relay race.&nbsp; These events were of short distances, between 3 and 5 kilometers, and the point was to make my daughter realize this is a distance she can actually run without a problem.</p><p>Lastly, I had the covid luxury of being able to organize a one-week bi-athlon bike-swim session with my daughter and 5 of her friends.&nbsp; In the morning they went to sport camp (while I worked) and in the afternoon I had them ride 25 kilometers followed by rigorous swim training.&nbsp; By the end of the week they were truly exhausted, but still in surprisingly good spirits thanks to the introduction of bubble-tea boosters.&nbsp; Taipei is the global bubble-tea epicenter.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Importantly, each of these training sessions was a longer distance than the triathlon my daughter would be doing: a junior event with a swim distance of 350 meters, a 5 kilometer bike ride and a 2 kilometer run.&nbsp; When my daughter heard of the triathlon distances, she knew, perhaps with excess confidence, that this was something she could conquer.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>On race day she was all nerves and talking very little. Obvious second-thoughts about having agreed to this insanity.&nbsp; I told her to only put on her swim cap and goggles right before the race, but she had them strapped on tightly about 20 minutes before the start, making it impossible for me to see her eyes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>But interestingly, unlike me, who gets more nervous when I look around and see my competitors, Zahra told me seeing the hundreds of other kids actually relaxed her, because many of them were obviously even more freaked out than she was.&nbsp; Interesting logic, very different to mine.</p><p>How did I get my wife to sign up?&nbsp; She would never have signed up months in advance.  I knew that if I proposed it she would think about it, speak with friends, and say &#8216;no way&#8217;.&nbsp; But when a few weeks ago one of the members of my triathlon online chat group announced he was part of a relay group and suddenly his whole team could no longer make it, I knew this was the time to present this unique combination of &#8216;need for help&#8217; and &#8216;opportunity&#8217; to my wife.&nbsp; Her event would comprise a 1.5 kilometer swim, a 40 kilometer bike ride and a 10 kilometer run.&nbsp; I proposed she do the swim, which she could definitely do (afterall, she regularly swims longer distances in the pool), and that if I couldn&#8217;t find someone else to do the bike and run segments I&#8217;d do them myself.&nbsp; She agreed to do the swim, and finding takers for the bike and run segments was easy - within two days she had a triathlon team.&nbsp; Yikes.&nbsp; People she needed to be accountable for, in something she&#8217;d never done before.&nbsp; Excitement and jitters.</p><p>As race day approached, my wife started expressing regret and wonder about what-the-hell she had just signed up for. The swim distance in the lake looked frightfully long.&nbsp; I told her to just enjoy the swim and look for the many fish in the lake.&nbsp; I also told her - which turned out to be quite helpful - that feeling panic and even shortness of breath for the first two to three hundred meters was normal, and she should just concentrate on finding her own rhythm.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Unfortunately, once the moment of her race came, I had to take care of the kids and didn&#8217;t even see her jump in the lake.&nbsp; I have to admit, I was a little nervous she&#8217;d panic, or get kicked in the face by another swimmer.&nbsp; I felt a little anxious not to be able to see how she was doing.</p><p>But when I saw her about an hour later she was ecstatic.&nbsp; She recounted her initial panic and how - true enough - after a few hundred meters she relaxed and actually enjoyed the full race course. She told me my description of a lake teeming with beautiful fish was a tremendous exaggeration, as she only counted 17 fish comprising a measly 2 varieties.&nbsp; But she loved the event, and she got along great with her teammates who had just the right balance of eagerness to do well and a desire to make as many jokes as possible of their situation.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg" width="277" height="320" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:320,&quot;width&quot;:277,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:241765,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kHaH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e39ee7-6684-46d9-902e-ebe3d63e0472_277x320.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg" width="320" height="306" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:306,&quot;width&quot;:320,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:58797,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tvSf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6ad16a0-ae8d-4dc3-a948-7c08e120003c_320x306.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I never asked my daughter or wife about their times, though I know they were keenly looking them up to compare with others.&nbsp; Interestingly, they both volunteered their eagerness to have friends join us at the next event.&nbsp; My daughter said her younger two sisters might be able to give it a go next year.</p><p>I was nervous about what I had signed them up for, but it turns out it was just the right amount of nudging - they both had a great time and are already talking about which friends they can lure into this weird carnival experience.</p><p>As for me, I&#8217;m really pleased to see my family enjoying an event with me.&nbsp; It feels great to have this shared experience in the unique carnival that is a triathlon.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg" width="261" height="320" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:320,&quot;width&quot;:261,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:59593,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V3iK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39c6a152-c9a9-420e-a9cc-f5e7318c1a72_261x320.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Taiwan: My New Borrowed Place on Borrowed Time]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this on October 19, 2022. It elicited some strong reactions. I've reflected on it, and been flying more to HK recently. I've changed my views somewhat and should write an update soon....]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/taiwan-my-new-borrowed-place-on-borrowed</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/taiwan-my-new-borrowed-place-on-borrowed</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 13:13:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>"How much longer will you stay?"&nbsp;</p><p>Ever since my family&#8217;s Covid escapade from Hong Kong to Taipei, I get asked that question.</p><p>At first, it was a natural question.&nbsp; We came in February 2020 as tourists, and we played like tourists: splurged on Taipei&#8217;s great food, its amazing night markets, and I went crazy exploring mountains on a rented road-bike.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg" width="927" height="1280" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1280,&quot;width&quot;:927,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MGky!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5ddc742-9280-48d3-b99f-958ee7a02bfd_927x1280.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption"><em>Photo of my early morning ride near Pingling Tea Plantations, 30km from my home in downtown Taipei</em></figcaption></figure></div><p>Weeks turned into months.&nbsp; We laughed about being covid-refugees, but it was more than just covid we had run away from.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>I was glued to my phone watching the final acts of how history gets written:&nbsp; A new faction of masters slaughtering Hong Kong&#8217;s rebellious spirit; determined to pump it with loyalty; whether by law, gun or gangster.&nbsp; Love letters, promises of a better tomorrow, had failed.&nbsp; Eventually pretenses perish and power prevails.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg" width="1456" height="819" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:819,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;dale de la rey Hong Kong xi Jinping 2017&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="dale de la rey Hong Kong xi Jinping 2017" title="dale de la rey Hong Kong xi Jinping 2017" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3reu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0c8e87-26d6-41c9-b8bf-c6745e9c5e29_1500x844.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption"><em>Xi JinPing on his Hong Kong arrival in 2017. Photo by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/daledelarey/">Dale De La Rey</a> (permission pending). This is my favorite Xi JinPing photo.</em></figcaption></figure></div><p>Hong Kong was exceptional.&nbsp; It was a civilized place where people thrived without being forced to abide by a code of loyalty (in most societies this is a prerequisite with a long tradition of violence).</p><p>I grew up with a very impermanent sense of home. Nine international moves before the age of eighteen and parents from two different languages, continents and world views. But from the time I first stepped foot in Hong Kong at the age of 13, to the time I left it age 48 (and many moves in-between), something about the energy of Hong Kong always felt magical, somewhat despairful, and surprisingly romantic.&nbsp;</p><p>Hong Kong&#8217;s homeless spirit, although not in any way meant for me, was&nbsp; <em>there</em> embracing me in return. Hong Kong&#8217;s unsetttled spirit (not to mention the perpetual destruction of old landmarks for new ones), created a perpetual sense of nostalgia.&nbsp; For some reason I could see the city through prisms of romance.&nbsp; Falling in love there was easy.</p><p>Now I was in the midst of this unplanned move to Taipei for who-knows-how-long, watching my secret spiritual bond to Hong Kong get exposed and trampled.&nbsp; I thought:&nbsp; trying to make Hong Kong people deferential to a distant power is as laughable as the thought of making New Yorkers deferential to anything on the other side of those bridges and tunnels.&nbsp; But now teenagers and grandmas were being arrested.&nbsp; Friends lauded me on the genius of my move (<em>as if</em> I had planned it; I only came with one light sweater), and repeatedly told me not to come back.</p><p><em><strong>A Borrowed Place, On Borrowed Time</strong></em>.&nbsp; This phrase has been used for decades to describe Hong Kong&#8217;s precarious spiritual infidelity, the one I so loved.&nbsp; It is usually credited either to the novelist Han Suyin or the author Richard Hughes, both of whom used it to describe the communal psychology that made Hong Kong (and its movies and canto-pop) so alluring.&nbsp; In 1959 Han Suyin wrote about Hong Kong:</p><blockquote><p><em>Squeezed between giant antagonists crunching huge bones of contention, Hong Kong has achieved within its own narrow territories a co-existence which is baffling, infuriating, incomprehensible, and works splendidly &#8211; on borrowed time in a borrowed place.</em></p></blockquote><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg" width="335" height="500" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:500,&quot;width&quot;:335,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!r8LD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcfdc0b8-1b64-4f68-ab3e-39eb9258e445_335x500.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Many thought, perhaps complacently, that Hong Kong's borrowed time was meant to last at least until 2047 as part of a "one country, two systems" framework agreed between the United Kingdom and China.</p><p>But &#8220;two systems&#8221; became too unbearable.&nbsp; Finally, the spirit of Hong Kong's baffling co-existence on borrowed time was killed in those bewildering weeks-turned-into-months of 2020 that I was spending in Taipei.</p><p>Life here in Taipei&nbsp; seemed bizarrely normal compared to anywhere else in covid-world-2020, but especially compared to Hong Kong.&nbsp; Realizing my family&#8217;s luck, I applied for (and fortunately obtained) Taiwan residence, coordinated a remote move out of our Hong Kong apartment, and switched from airbnb to long-term contract.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Yet almost three years on in Taipei, this "how much longer will you stay?"&nbsp; has persisted.<br><br><em>Why</em> this obsessive question?&nbsp; Even asked repeatedly? Even by my foreign friends?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>I was starting to get paranoid.&nbsp; Is it some sort of xenophobia?&nbsp; Is my ability to adapt being questioned?&nbsp; Can people see me struggling in ways that even I don't yet perceive?&nbsp; Yet at the same time, why do I consistently feel so welcome?</p><p>Then I started to realize it was not just me.&nbsp; Even among locals, especially those with foreign connectivity, this question is a frequent topic of discussion.&nbsp; And the frequency of this question is exacerbated by the huge number of disconnections already in place:&nbsp; children, lovers and other family members living overseas and in many cases not returning.&nbsp; A feeling that, if you can afford it, you should have a Plan B; and if the future is somewhere over <em>there</em>, then when (if not now?) does it become foolish to stay <em>here</em>?</p><p>Now I see that the pervasiveness of this question points to something deeper.&nbsp; An acknowledgement of a stasis, perhaps like Hong Kong&#8217;s, that may be delicate.&nbsp; The spirit of this home may also be ephemeral.&nbsp; The condition that inspires this question has become chronic, affecting Taiwan&#8217;s social psychology, at least among those that could move if they had to.</p><p>And yet I love living here and can't think of a better place for my family.&nbsp; What's more, I've come to realize that there's something about this chronic condition that I find attractive, at least in small doses.</p><p><em><strong>Taiwan:&nbsp; My new Borrowed Place on Borrowed Time</strong></em><strong>. </strong>&nbsp;The comparison to Hong Kong is a troubling (and politically incorrect) juxtaposition on many levels, especially seeing what has just happened there.&nbsp; I'm not suggesting nor hoping that Taiwan's fate should be the same as Hong Kong's, but if you read the Han Suyin quote above and replace Hong Kong with Taiwan, you may see what I mean.&nbsp; Taiwan is not a colony and there is no handover agreement. Yet still its sovereignty and self-determination is contested.&nbsp; It has no UN representation.</p><p>So what twisted condition have I got that actually finds this mass temporal uncertainty <em>alluring</em>?</p><p>There's a strong and rightful sense of pride (balanced with healthy doses of cynicism) for all that Taiwan has achieved over the last few decades: tremendous political, legal and social reform towards democracy. To me, Taiwan&#8217;s pride feels grounded and cognisant of its fragility.&nbsp; Isn&#8217;t this the humility that should always accompany pride?&nbsp; The blind patriotism that I feel in many other places feels refreshingly absent here.</p><p>Taiwan&#8217;s sense of humility is not just grounded by geopolitical forces, but also geological ones.&nbsp; Not a month goes by where you don't feel the tremors of the four massive tectonic plates that grind against each other to form the mountainous ridges of Taiwan.&nbsp; And on my early morning bike rides, just 20km from home, I often ride by the fumaroles of Mount Datun, a live volcano sitting right on the doorstep of Taipei's 7 million people.&nbsp; I strongly believe that each of these forces - <em>geopolitics, tectonics, and the live volcano on my doorstep</em> - create tremendous beauty on this island, but any one of them could also destroy it.</p><p>In Hong Kong I lived in a city where in many respects I had little in common with most of the people, yet on the other hand felt there was a strong bond for cherishing the unique moment in time, and the mystery of where our future may be.&nbsp;</p><p>For now, I know that future is in Taiwan. Somehow I feel that it's not just me and my family that have moved to Taiwan, but a tiny bit of Hong Kong's spirit. Of course I'm concerned, but I'm also excited about all of the beauty created from this energy, and that I can be so lucky to be a part of it, in my new borrowed place, on borrowed time.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg" width="1280" height="845" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:845,&quot;width&quot;:1280,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;yangming shan datun fumaroles&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="yangming shan datun fumaroles" title="yangming shan datun fumaroles" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tLGM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F285c38fc-66f4-47b0-a15d-19f34761cf93_1280x845.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption"><em>Fumarole clouds from Mt. Datun, North side of YangMingShan Park, taken on one of my early morning bike rides&#8230;</em></figcaption></figure></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Aug 09 2022 Newsletter]]></title><description><![CDATA[I had actually written several newsletters, but lost them (and all my email subscriber details) after the mail-out service I was using, Revue, was closed down by Twitter...]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/aug-09-2022-newsletter</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/aug-09-2022-newsletter</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 13:09:17 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>Ouch. It's been a year.&nbsp;Here's an overdue update, with a renewed commitment to share more of my thoughts once-a-week :)</p><p><strong>Where am I?</strong></p><p>Still in Taipei with the family, and thankful for it.</p><p>Haven&#8217;t flown since landing here in Feb 2020 'for a few weeks' to avoid school closures in Hong Kong.&nbsp;I know the world has changed a lot post covid, but HK is one of those places that has changed the most.&nbsp;I feel that HK&#8217;s rebellious spunk has been quashed; there&#8217;s no longer any tolerance for living on &#8216;borrowed time in a borrowed place&#8217; (a phrase beautifully immortalized by writer <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Borrowed-place-borrowed-time-faces/dp/0233966986">Richard Hughes</a>).&nbsp;What is it that's no longer tolerated? Ambiguous loyalties, yearnings for exceptionalism and unfiltered attitude.</p><p>I get too much credit for the timing of my move to Taiwan; it&#8217;s mostly luck.&nbsp;Luck that we came here the day that we did (borders closed a few days later), luck that Taiwan has turned out to be one of the best places to be during Covid (kids schooling was almost uninterrupted), and luck that Taiwan has welcomed my family to live here.</p><p><strong>5 Things I've Been Doing:</strong></p><p>Reading more books: I&#8217;ve read more books in the last 2 years than I read in 10 years prior to moving here.&nbsp;The secret has been no 12-hour-a-day job, less time reading news and joining my father&#8217;s Singapore-based book club.&nbsp;I&#8217;m currently &#8532; through a masterpiece of writing and analysis: the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=power+broker+robert+caro">Power Broker by Robert Caro</a>.</p><p>Improving my Chinese:&nbsp;My biggest impediment is that I&#8217;m not socializing enough in Chinese, mostly due to lack of time.&nbsp;So I&#8217;ve been focusing a lot on my reading skills.&nbsp;Two important developments have been to switch off my Chinese to English dictionary so that explanations are now all in Chinese, and to prohibit myself from daily reading of FT and Bloomberg.&nbsp;I now mostly read a Taiwanese news provider called <a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/">CNA</a>.</p><p>Getting into better shape:&nbsp;This October I&#8217;ll be competing in my 4th half-IronMan distance triathlon.&nbsp;My biggest barrier to improving my time has been my terrible running speed.&nbsp;The last few months I&#8217;ve been focusing on my running and I can now easily run a 5k at a pace of around 5:15/km, and I&#8217;m hoping to bring this to under a 5-minute pace for a 10 kilometer distance.&nbsp;I&#8217;ll be running a 10k race in October and a 5k relay race this August.</p><p>Working with energy and mining companies: My professional transition since moving to Taipei has been more haphazard than methodical.&nbsp;I&#8217;m lucky it&#8217;s worked out, but I need to get more methodical.&nbsp;I&#8217;ve principally been helping Australian natural gas companies.&nbsp;I worked extensively with one company in the state of Victoria seeking to develop Australia&#8217;s largest underground natural gas storage reservoir.&nbsp;This is a fantastic project to assist Australia&#8217;s transition from coal to renewable power sources.&nbsp;The storage reservoir acts as a massive battery that can allow natural gas fired peaking stations to be quickly activated when renewable sources are not able to meet demand.&nbsp;I&#8217;m also on the Board of a Perth-based company seeking to develop a sizable offshore gas and liquids deposit.</p><p>Spending a lot of time with my kids: The most amazing thing of the last 2+ years has been the amount of time I&#8217;ve been able to spend with my kids.&nbsp;I loved my job in Hong Kong and never begrudged the consistent 12 hour work-days, but having time to spend with my kids every afternoon has been priceless.&nbsp;</p><p><strong>4 Projects I'm Considering:</strong></p><p>Publish credit stories on LinkedIn: I continue to follow credit markets and have discussions with friends still active in the space, but I&#8217;m not contributing.&nbsp;I&#8217;d like to change that by writing credit related pieces weekly on LInkedIn.&nbsp;Those links will also appear on this weekly newsletter, although the focus of this newsletter is more personal.&nbsp;Stories that I&#8217;m particularly interested in at the moment are the impact of China&#8217;s property slowdown on USD credit markets, the situation in Sri Lanka and Indonesian credits.</p><p>Taiwan Energy Strategy Projects:&nbsp;There are two projects that I think Taiwan should be seriously considering: 1) an underground natural gas storage reservoir to provide greater energy security and to complement its planned transition to greater use of renewable sources.&nbsp;Taiwan at the moment really lacks storage reserves;&nbsp;any disruption to supplies could be devastating for the island.&nbsp;2) Direct High Voltage connectivity with Japan.&nbsp;Direct High Voltage power cables are expensive, but the technology is now proven.&nbsp;Such a cable linking Taiwan to Japan would be expensive (US$2bn?) but is technically feasible.&nbsp;The idea is for Taiwan to purchase nuclear power from Japan and at the same stroke solidify its economic connectivity to Japan.&nbsp;In exchange Taiwan may be able to also export any future excess renewable energy back to Japan.&nbsp;Depending on how the cable is routed, the cable could be beneficial to smaller Japanese islands that are close to Taiwan.</p><p>Taiwan Creative and Research Industries Promotion: Taiwan already has a few initiatives to attract talent from abroad, but these are mostly focused on attracting individuals, rather than companies.&nbsp;Now that Hong Kong and Singapore are seemingly becoming more restrictive to foreign residents, I believe there&#8217;s an opportunity for Taiwan to promote itself as a wonderful and affordable destination for companies involved in research and creativity.&nbsp;Initially I think Taiwan should focus on the research side of fund management (allowing trade execution and the fund structures to remain in HK and SG), media, advertising and analytics.&nbsp;I hope to be able to work with Taiwan&#8217;s National Development Council to develop a plan and address some of the barriers (which I believe mostly involve permitting bureaucracy and ambiguity).&nbsp;I&#8217;m also not entirely sure how I can monetize this project, but there should be a way&#8230;</p><p>Taiwan Biking Initiative:&nbsp;Taiwan, and specifically Taipei, has the potential to become Asia&#8217;s capital of family-friendly cycling mobility.&nbsp;There&#8217;s no reason why in 10 years people could not start to associate Taipei with bicycles the same way in which the world today thinks of Amsterdam.&nbsp;Taipei is mostly flat, not too spread out, has plenty of road space (though almost none of it is currently allocated to safe bike commuting), and boasts 2 of the world&#8217;s largest biking companies.&nbsp;Taiwan derives almost no value-add from the car industry, although its urban planning bends over backwards for the car and does relatively little for the bicycle.&nbsp;I&#8217;d like to work on projects to convert one lane of a few of Taipei&#8217;s larger roads to dedicated (segregated) bicycle lanes to facilitate safe commuting.&nbsp;I&#8217;d also like to see two of Taipei&#8217;s main arteries adopt a Sunday &#8216;car-free&#8217; strategy to facilitate urban family riding across the city.</p><p>I look forward to connecting with you again next week, with what will hopefully be a smaller note with a few more focused thoughts I&#8217;m exploring and keen to share.</p><p>Have a great week,</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Unleash Your Inner Chameleon]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this post on September 22, 2021]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/unleash-your-inner-chameleon</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/unleash-your-inner-chameleon</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 13:06:48 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>We&#8217;re all chameleons, but most of us don&#8217;t realize it.&nbsp; Bilinguals know it; so do most people that live with an alter ego, a pseudonym or a stage name.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>What <em>is</em> this inner chameleon? It&#8217;s simply that potential we all have to express ourselves with a large variety of permutations, just as a chameleon can alter its appearance depending on mood.&nbsp; Many of the most accomplished artists, entrepreneurs and scientists are people that have the audacity to periodically experiment with something new and different.</p><p>We cheat ourselves and the world loses out when our inner chameleons are suppressed.&nbsp; Think of the inspiration <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FP808MiJUcM">Farrokh Bulsara</a> has brought to millions of people through his alter ego, Freddy Mercury, and what a loss it would be if he had not found a way to unleash his inner performer.</p><p>But because it may be hard to relate to famous celebrities, I think it&#8217;s important to stress how there&#8217;s already a bit of chameleon in all of us, and it&#8217;s particularly evident in bilingual people.</p><p>My friend and colleague Hugo is a great example. He&#8217;s a bilingual French and Spanish speaker who uses English as his language of business and investment memos.&nbsp; In English he is a deeply skeptical credit analyst, perpetually taking a glass-half-empty view of how a transaction may perform.&nbsp; Colleagues in the office, especially those trying to get a deal approved, find him frustrating and boring; grudgingly admitting (with a curse) there might be some basis to his paranoias.&nbsp; But in our Spanish conversations, he is a non-stop stream of jokes.&nbsp; In Spanish, Mr. Can&#8217;t-Take-That-Risk talks to me about the joys of vacationing with his 3 young kids in Southern Yucatan, going from town to town eating street food.&nbsp; His face in Spanish comes alive with silly jovial features that are just nowhere to be found when he&#8217;s in English mode.</p><p>I became aware of my inner chameleon in my early 20s during a journey with my girlfriend to Peru and Bolivia.&nbsp; She had only known my English-speaking self and was finding it astonishing to suddenly hear me speaking a lot in Spanish, repeatedly telling me that I seemed like a different person.</p><p>But nearly 30 years on I&#8217;ve become a little frustrated, having this awareness of the chameleon potential and not exploiting it.&nbsp; Possessing two or three language modes is no better than one if you can&#8217;t muster the courage or organization to regularly get on a &#8216;stage&#8217; to perform - whether that performance be publishing, launching business ventures, or a new community event.</p><p>Why is it so difficult to perform?&nbsp; Besides disorganization, I think it&#8217;s because we&#8217;re conditioned to conform and to be much more paranoid by the thought of individual failure than group failure.&nbsp; Society hates chameleons, but we all have chameleon potential. Culture is a psychopathic boss that demands loyalty over truth.&nbsp;</p><p>Why do I think it&#8217;s so important to constantly push ourselves onto a new stage? Simply because it may turn out to bring you joy, and isn&#8217;t the potential to improve joy always worth exploring?</p><p>I signed up for Write of Passage to force myself onto a stage that requires me to bring out a creative side of me that I know is badly malnourished, but necessary for my overall growth.&nbsp; Although I have a number of interests, I have no idea of where the mysterious river of writing will take me.</p><p>There&#8217;s one other thing I&#8217;ve come to realize is critical to unleashing my inner chameleon:&nbsp; community.&nbsp; Immersion in a community that embraces funkiness is key.</p><p>Whereas up until 20 years ago finding that community necessitated physical immersion in a particular place (probably a big city), today the internet is the much larger, much more accessible, and possibly safer place to congregate (and just as there are rules for how to survive in New York, there are rules for how to survive on Twitter).</p><p>I&#8217;ve come to realize that we each have an obligation to nurture our inner chameleon, and this happens when we force ourselves to be public creators and immerse ourselves in communities that encourage and embrace funkiness, because a little crazy can be deeply rewarding.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[My 12 Favorite Problems, as of September 2021]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this post on September 14, 2021]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/my-12-favorite-problems-as-of-september</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/my-12-favorite-problems-as-of-september</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 13:05:26 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>Inspired by the &#8216;12 Favorite Problems&#8217; habit developed by physicist, writer and teacher Richard P Feynman, the Write of Passage online writing course at the beginning of every cohort likewise asks all participants to think of their current 12 Favorite Problems. For more on Richard Feynman&#8217;s 12 Problems habit, <a href="https://joebalcom.blog/12-favorite-problems/">here</a> is a good summary which I probably should have read before having drafted my own list, below.</p><p><strong>My 'Me' Questions</strong></p><ol><li><p>Will I find a way to balance the trinity of personal time with family time and making-money time?</p></li><li><p>What can I do to integrate the personal time with the making-money time? Can writing get me closer to this paradigm?</p></li><li><p>How can I be more accountable and responsive to my far-away friends?&nbsp;</p></li><li><p>What can I do to further optimize my strength, endurance and flexibility?</p></li><li><p>How can I reconcile my desire for clean-eating with my obsession to discover the next best croissant?</p></li></ol><p><strong>My Family Questions</strong></p><ol><li><p>What should I do to better provide each of my 3 children with fair and meaningful time with me?</p></li><li><p>What more can I do to instill in my children a life-long passion for creative production and learning?</p></li><li><p>What can I do to help my brother break out of his long funk?</p></li><li><p>What can I do to meaningfully engage with my parents?</p></li></ol><p><strong>My World Questions</strong></p><ol><li><p>The world seems to be pivoting towards narrow loyalties of nationalism, culturalism and choosing sides. How will this impact my children?</p></li><li><p>What can I do to improve my engagement with the local community?</p></li><li><p>What more can I do to help the environment and reduce pollution?</p></li></ol>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Should Bilingualism be Compulsory?]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this post on September 13, 2021]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/should-bilingualism-be-compulsory</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/should-bilingualism-be-compulsory</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 13:04:19 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>One of my friends today sent me a link to a New York Times editorial titled <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/business/china-english.html?searchResultPosition=1">&#8220;Reversing Gears&#8221;: China Increasingly Rejects English, and the World</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The editorial draws on anecdotes (it is the NYT afterall) to conclude that China&#8217;s leadership is discouraging its best and brightest from joining <em>the</em> international language of cultural, scientific and financial exchange: English.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#8217;t doubt the conclusions of the article.&nbsp; However, although state mandated barriers to education are never a good thing, I must confess that part of me is sympathetic to the de-emphasis on bilingualism, unless it can realistically be attained without sacrificing other learning experiences.</p><p>Being multilingual can be an incredible accelerator to understanding different ways of thinking, seeing and laughing; but I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s the <em>only</em> road to getting there.&nbsp; And frankly, very few people who study a new language ever get anywhere close to proficient (let alone fluent), and one has to ask if the cumulative hours spent memorizing words and syntax could actually have been used towards a much more enriching endeavor.&nbsp; For most people, the answer must be Yes.</p><p>China is not the only country that has chosen to de-emphasize bilingualism; many others have done so.&nbsp; My friend Jeff today pointed out to me that the Philippines did the same thing after the Americans left, in what he nicely described as &#8220;misplaced nationalism.&#8221;</p><p>That&#8217;s the thing, many countries that stop teaching a foreign language probably do it for the same wrong reason - misplaced nationalism - as opposed to for good practical reasons: to allocate more time for science, math, humanities&#8230; and physical education!</p><p>The other reason it may make sense for China to de-emphasize bilingualism is that, surprisingly, China is still struggling to provide most of its population with a high school degree.&nbsp; According to Stanford professor Scott Rozelle, only about 30% of China&#8217;s population today has a high school degree, compared to over 80% in most <a href="https://www.oecd.org/about/document/ratification-oecd-convention.htm">OECD countries</a>. For more fascinating insights from Dr. Rozelle on education in China, I recommend this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gRKg_RXV1M">youtube video</a> starting at around minute 18.</p><p>Notwithstanding my defense of monolingualism, not all languages are equal.&nbsp; English is <em>the</em> global language superpower. You join the English speaking tribe with whatever accent and grammar you may have, to absorb and influence a vibrant global discourse controlled by no-one.&nbsp; While the most powerful native English speaking countries contribute less than 20% of global GDP (sources <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/">A</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/3/3/8053521/25-maps-that-explain-english">B</a>) and less than 20% of the world speaks English, about 60% of all content on the internet is in English (<a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-most-used-languages-on-the-internet/">source</a>). It&#8217;s pretty understandable why parents want their kids to learn English.</p><p>Finally, and since this essay is happy with NY Times anecdotal conclusions of how the world works, I think bilingualism is terrible for boys.&nbsp; Anecdotally, girls seem to not only be faster and better at speaking their own native language, but also second and third languages.&nbsp; Here&#8217;s my money-anecdote: my 8 year-old daughter today spent the day with a friend that has a 10 year-old older sister and a 7 year-old younger brother.&nbsp; The two sisters speak with each other exclusively in English, even though no one else in the family speaks English and the school they go to with my daughter is all in Chinese.&nbsp; They just watch TV and read in English, and they&#8217;re fluent! They even fight with each other in English!&nbsp; And here&#8217;s <a href="https://www.britishcouncil.org/contact/press/new-report-reveals-stark-gender-gap-foreign-languages">an article</a> to back up this anecdote.&nbsp; The outperformance of girls vs boys is not limited to language, there&#8217;s a boy scholastic crisis happening around the world, according to this<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi1oN1icAYc">author on TedX</a>, whose social ramifications are being ignored.&nbsp; Yet another example of how the current educational system almost everywhere is in need of complete reinvention&#8230; a topic for a future essay&#8230;&nbsp;</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Last Monday I survived KOM: The World’s Most Strenuous Uphill Road Bike Race]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this post on September 12, 2021]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/last-monday-i-survived-kom-the-worlds</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/last-monday-i-survived-kom-the-worlds</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:59:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>I was half-way through the race and my heart was thumping so loud that it was drowning out the sound of crickets and the rapids from the Liwu River far below. I was barely moving - a fast walker could have passed me - and the whole bike creaked from my 79 kilos of weight bearing down on the cranks as I stood on the pedals shifting left/right/left just to keep in motion. So steep, so slow&#8230; amazing I wasn&#8217;t just flopping over onto the road, or over the guardrails and down into Taiwan&#8217;s deep Taroko Gorge.</p><p>For hours, at least the last 40 kilometers of the race, calf and quad muscles on both legs felt like they were just one sloppy exertion away from freezing up in an agonizing muscle cramp.</p><p>I was popping extra-strength Paracetamol like jelly beans. Actually, not swallowing them but letting them dissolve in all their bitter sandy glory in my mouth as I moved pathetically from one altitude and distance marker to the next. I was in zombie mode; too wiped-out to do the simplest of calculations of how close or far I might be from the finish line.</p><p>Taiwan&#8217;s KOM Race (standing for &#8220;King of the Mountain&#8221;), is the world&#8217;s most insane mountain race, in one of the world&#8217;s most beautiful settings, the ~6 million year-old Taroko Gorge. Over a distance of 90 kilometers, cyclists climb from sea-level to an altitude of 3,200 meters (~11,000 feet), often with road gradients steeper than 20%. The steepest gradients, reaching inclines of 27%, are all in the last 10 km of the race, where the air is noticeably thinner, and the tempo of your breath - if you happen to be racing - becomes a long chain of of loud and desperate staccato chants for mercy.</p><p>I started the race with intention and the pace to be toward the front of the pack. A few hours later I had no idea of my overall position, except that the peers I&#8217;d meant to ride with were ahead of me. I was just trying to finish without the humiliation of walking, plus the fear that getting off my bike might set off a muscle cramp.</p><p>Finally, ever so slowly, I made it to the finish line. Too wasted to even sprint over the finish line like a champ, I was just trying to keep my head up to see the last few meters ahead of me. But I finished this beast of a race. And it turns out I finished 7th for my age-group, 75th overall, and in 6 hours and 20 minutes, which is all better than I was expecting. Do I want to do this again. Fuckyeah!</p><p>Below are some photos of me during the early stages of the race - these are around 10% inclines, not the humiliating inclines later in the race - and some photos of me at the end of the race.</p><p>Twice towards the end of the race (but before I&#8217;d even made it over the finish line!) I welled up with emotion and almost started crying. But I just told myself, don&#8217;t do this&#8230; you don&#8217;t have the energy for tears! And you haven&#8217;t even finished yet!</p><p>This was my first time to the Taroko Gorge and I was there with friends from my cycling group, the Taipei Slow Cyclists, but no family. Next trip must be with the family. What a magical place.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg" width="1456" height="1144" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1144,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;DSC_5954_Original.jpeg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="DSC_5954_Original.jpeg" title="DSC_5954_Original.jpeg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZWU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2cf9042-f2d7-4c2e-b80e-db2e34b9cfec_1500x1179.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg" width="1456" height="2189" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:2189,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;DSC_5963_Original.jpeg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="DSC_5963_Original.jpeg" title="DSC_5963_Original.jpeg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!z0cm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae896fae-081c-459b-b595-f2c87c510cd5_1500x2255.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg" width="1456" height="861" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:861,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;IMG_3703.jpeg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="IMG_3703.jpeg" title="IMG_3703.jpeg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!djK7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3c2a32e-406f-45eb-a167-3b1685146421_1500x887.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg" width="1456" height="1365" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/aff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1365,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;IMG_3711.jpeg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="IMG_3711.jpeg" title="IMG_3711.jpeg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fbDJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faff0fc47-df4f-419b-b0e1-ea61576b8e64_1500x1406.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg" width="1456" height="927" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:927,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tQCu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F646a87ee-1468-4e2c-b89e-aa4ce8facaf2_1500x955.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Do I Write? Why Do I Not Write?]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this post on September 10, 2021 as part of the Write of Passage online writing course]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/why-do-i-write-why-do-i-not-write</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/why-do-i-write-why-do-i-not-write</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:57:19 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p>I thought I&#8217;d write a brief essay of why I write, but I came to the realization that what I should really be exploring is all the reasons that I don&#8217;t write.</p><p>As much as I&#8217;d like to proclaim myself a writer, nothing in my track record so far can substantiate this claim. But if deep inside I have this voice shouting at me telling me that writing is something I must do to get meaning and clarity in life, then why the &amp;*^% am I not doing it all the time?</p><p>This week I&#8217;ve joined the 7th cohort of the world&#8217;s most amazing on-line writing course, <a href="https://writeofpassage.school/">Write of Passage, by David Perell</a>. If you want to experience how the future of learning should be, you must check out &#8216;WoP&#8217;. To me, WoP is an empowerment experience: how to develop the wrestling techniques to use the internet and data to my own advantage as opposed to only giving away digital footprints of my life to big tech. If I have no choice but to give up my privacy, then I might as well develop the muscles and agility to engage with these platforms and exploit them to my advantage, on my terms, with my voice.</p><p>Why Do I Write?</p><ol><li><p>For the feeling of synthesis. I mean, that process of clarified thinking. That&#8217;s not to say I won&#8217;t or can&#8217;t change my mind; I&#8217;m talking dynamic synthesis that may change over time, not static synthesis! I get deep pleasure from the feeling of understanding concepts better, and for me nothing creates synthesis better than writing.</p></li><li><p>For the epiphanies. Writing for me catalyzes new questions and ideas that I hadn&#8217;t even thought about before I had begun the writing process. Quite often, these epiphanies are more valuable gems than the original synthesis that I was seeking.</p></li><li><p>For meaningful interaction. I write first for myself, but just as importantly as a way to stay connected and hopefully &#8216;in-dialogue&#8217; with a few of my closest friends, as well as to experience the wonder of making a few new friends along the way.</p></li></ol><p>Why Do I Not Write?</p><ol><li><p>I&#8217;m terrified of publishing incomplete or vacuous material</p></li><li><p>I&#8217;m disorganized and need to improve my habits; particularly to shed routines and commitments that have no compounding value</p></li><li><p>My writing-gratification pathway is subtle and indirect. When I go cycling, running or swimming I get a quick &#8216;high&#8217; within 20 minutes of starting the activity. Writing for me is more like stretching or meditation. Pain or fear receptors are firing and there&#8217;s not that quick flood of endorphins to drown them out.</p></li></ol><p>One of my objectives is to start publishing a short essay every day. This is because I feel that I need my most precious desires to become part of a daily habit. Write of Passage demands the creation of more substantial essays, and I&#8217;ll need to learn how to manage larger creations that are in-development for many days while at the same time publishing a short daily piece.</p><p>I&#8217;d be interested in knowing if any of my thoughts resonated with you, or if you have some other strong reasons for why you write, or don&#8217;t write!</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Emerging Markets will Fail to Navigate Automation + Carbon Reduction. Here’s why…]]></title><description><![CDATA[I wrote this essay on May 12, 2021 as part of Write of Passage, an online writing course.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/emerging-markets-will-fail-to-navigate</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/emerging-markets-will-fail-to-navigate</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:39:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p><strong>Emissions Standards + Automation = Major Threat for Emerging Markets</strong></p><p>Automation and the cost of stringent emission standards will hurt emerging markets (EMs) much more than is generally appreciated, and the pain is likely to become pronounced this decade.&nbsp;</p><p>Media coverage about carbon taxes and automation (including robots) is biased towards developed markets. However, it is actually emerging markets that will endure a much more painful transition as direct and indirect carbon taxes and low-cost automation encroach into day-to-day life.&nbsp; The pain on emerging markets will be immense, and will eventually ricochet on developed markets, which is why it behooves everyone to think about how EMs will weather these typhoons.</p><p>I&#8217;m writing this article not because I&#8217;m against lower emissions, automation, or international agreements.&nbsp; In fact I enthusiastically support all of these.&nbsp; I hate air and water pollution and wish more was done to address these concerns.&nbsp; I grew up in Mexico City and as an adult have mostly lived in Hong Kong.&nbsp; Both are terrible cities when it comes to pollution, and both with inept leadership lacking any sense of urgency on these issues. I also don&#8217;t dispute a need for urgency; many of the most tragic climate event risks are likely to impact emerging markets, who are the least capable of paying for the recovery.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>For a visual of who will benefit the most from improved adoption of environmental standards, the following map is a great primer.&nbsp; However, instead of reading the color codes as an indicator of emissions compliance, think of the colors as indicators of probable future GDP growth in a decade of aggressively targeting lower emissions. <br>Green = Go;&nbsp; Orange = Slow-Down;&nbsp; Red = Stop (or reverse).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png" width="1456" height="853" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:853,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LlvX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2417bd2d-ea2d-4686-8f03-83e4e5c9c588_1500x879.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Most of the world lives in the red and orange countries.&nbsp; The green countries + China drive most international policy targets and also control the purse-strings of investment capital.&nbsp; Just as globalization was catalyzed by the off-shoring of polluting and dangerous industries,&nbsp; developed countries have decided now is the time to reverse this trend.&nbsp; <br><strong>Aggressive lower emission targets + automation = anti-globalization?</strong></p><p>The irony is that although most of the accumulated pollution in our planet comes from developed countries, emerging markets are today relatively more reliant on coal-fired power, making their adjustment all the more difficult.&nbsp; The cost of switching to less polluting power sources is more expensive for EMs, not just because they often pay a higher cost of capital for project finance, but also because the cost of developing all the associated infrastructure for other fuel sources tends to be much higher.&nbsp; While international agreements have provided explicit concessions to EMs, these same countries are already experiencing indirect shadow &#8216;taxes&#8217; in the form of developed market capital providers becoming increasingly reluctant due to activist pressure to finance anything that has high carbon emissions.</p><p>Something about this noble environmental movement seems to be neglecting the complex economic and social impacts on emerging markets.</p><p><strong>Why now?</strong></p><p>The carbon reduction movement has&nbsp; reached a tipping point. It&#8217;s no longer a check-the-box side-show for providers of debt or equity, but rather a critical part of the investment-memo.&nbsp; COVID seems to have dramatically invigorated this movement.&nbsp; Also, markets that trade in carbon credits are working, creating a mechanism to tax pollution.&nbsp; Europe is at the forefront of adding carbon taxes to goods imported from jurisdictions that don&#8217;t tax pollution.</p><p>Traditionally passive &#8216;long only&#8217; equity investors have become quiet activists.&nbsp; Banks and credit funds have started to shun energy intensive borrowers who principally source their energy from coal-fired power plants.&nbsp; This effectively becomes an indirect tax to the borrowers making the cost of projects more expensive, potentially to the benefit of projects in developed markets that have access to cleaner fuel sources.</p><p>For example, a recent investment-grade $300 million bond issuance by an Indonesian nickel producer recently failed to meet its funding target because many investors now have restrictions on investing in energy-intensive businesses that use coal power.&nbsp; Indonesia as a country is almost entirely reliant on coal-fired power and this is something that sovereign investors are increasingly starting to scrutinize.&nbsp; Less capital availability simply means you have to pay more to attract other investors.</p><p>Switching now to the impact of automation on emerging markets:&nbsp; Every generation of robots delivers increasing productivity at a declining cost - a dynamic that no labor pool can match. China is doing to entry-level robots what it has done to consumer electronics for the last 40 years: produce a quality product at high volume and low cost. <strong>Robots that have so far mostly been a developed market phenomenon have started to enter the factory floor of emerging markets. No visas, contracts or labor unions to contend with. </strong>Employers will be spared the headaches and risks that come with large labor pools, but in exchange will contribute to social problems as no new industry will develop fast enough to absorb all of the redundant labor.</p><p>The table below shows the rapidly declining cost of robots.&nbsp; The &#8220;Payback Period&#8221; (cost vs. human labor) is rapidly declining.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg" width="573" height="250" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:250,&quot;width&quot;:573,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;2016 robot payback period in years from FT article.jpg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="2016 robot payback period in years from FT article.jpg" title="2016 robot payback period in years from FT article.jpg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!y-za!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c69b657-1404-4c8e-8659-06c365f95f8a_573x250.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: FT.com, June 6, 2016, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1dbd8c60-0cc6-11e6-ad80-67655613c2d6">China&#8217;s Robot Revolution</a></p><p>The following tables show the dramatic uptake in robot usage as the price falls...</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg" width="1218" height="836" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:836,&quot;width&quot;:1218,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-4-1.jpg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-4-1.jpg" title="Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-4-1.jpg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qUIe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed47c22a-4b7d-4068-8bc4-4453f7fd1a30_1218x836.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg" width="1222" height="832" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:832,&quot;width&quot;:1222,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-1.jpg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-1.jpg" title="Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Graph-1.jpg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X9x0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff638d08c-c98b-4f5b-901e-2595da197bda_1222x832.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The following table shows data for jobs that have been particularly impacted by automation in a US context.&nbsp; As the cost of automation declines and they are introduced to emerging countries, the impact to EM will be far greater because of the larger percentage of the population working in these types of jobs.&nbsp; Highlights are for those sectors particularly relevant to many EMs.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg" width="1151" height="777" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:777,&quot;width&quot;:1151,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;wef employment trends for jobs in US 2007-2018.jpg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="wef employment trends for jobs in US 2007-2018.jpg" title="wef employment trends for jobs in US 2007-2018.jpg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EYr9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53cdce5a-7f5a-4ea8-aec9-3a5a65e700f1_1151x777.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The following table shows expected in-roads of automation across many sectors.&nbsp; There is no sector that is not impacted by robotics.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg" width="1121" height="581" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:581,&quot;width&quot;:1121,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;wef share of jobs taken over by automation forecast.jpg&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="wef share of jobs taken over by automation forecast.jpg" title="wef share of jobs taken over by automation forecast.jpg" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7gRq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2feabf1a-8191-4324-afb3-1fb8e2c67c48_1121x581.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Who is Going to Pay?</strong></p><p>The challenges of aggressive emissions targets and automation to emerging markets are not being adequately studied.&nbsp; How much will it cost to retrain and provide long-term subsidies potentially to 10, 20 or 30% of the working population replaced by automation?&nbsp; How much will it cost to transition to non-coal sources of power?&nbsp; In the meantime, what will the &#8220;carbon-premium&#8221; be that these countries need to pay to access foreign capital markets?</p><p>Most importantly, who will pay for it?&nbsp; It will be extremely difficult for EMs to internally fund this transition.&nbsp; Unfortunately, developed countries offer little hope.&nbsp; Europe and the US are more inward focused today than they have been anytime since WW II, and partly for good reason; these countries have massive underfunded pensions, excessive government debt and an increasingly unhappy middle-class.&nbsp; Europe and now the US are embracing carbon reduction and automation because they are in a position&nbsp; to be economic beneficiaries of&nbsp; these trends.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Will rich countries be able to subsidize poorer countries with their gains from carbon policies and robotics? I doubt it, but I do see two scenarios where they may act meaningfully:</p><ul><li><p>One is if the impact to emerging markets is so devastating that it poses security risks domestically or to trade routes;</p></li><li><p>Another is if China and the West find themselves competing in a new &#8220;Great Game&#8221; to win influence in emerging markets.</p></li></ul><p>The tremendous accomplishments of development achieved in Taiwan, Korea and China serve as inspiration for what could be possible for other emerging countries, although it is hard to imagine any large EM such as Indonesia or Vietnam becoming high income countries in our lifetime. Education standards tend to be low and there tend to be many social and political impediments to mobility for ambitious individuals, notwithstanding the tremendous hope offered by the internet.&nbsp; Furthermore, carbon reduction targets and automation turn my skepticism of continued EM wealth creation into a conviction that this trend will stall and even possibly reverse in the coming decade.&nbsp; I&#8217;ll be reading and writing more about this, and I&#8217;m keen to have my convictions challenged - fodder for future essays...</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Almost Free from FROM]]></title><description><![CDATA[This was the first essay I wrote for an online writing course, Write of Passage, that asked us to write about our most commonly asked question.]]></description><link>https://www.stefan8.com/p/almost-free-from-from</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.stefan8.com/p/almost-free-from-from</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Stefan White]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:31:28 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><hr></div><p><em>March 11, 2021</em></p><p><strong>Almost Free from From</strong></p><p><em>&#8220;Where are you from?&#8221;&nbsp; This is the one question I&#8217;ve been asked the most my whole life. The question doesn&#8217;t bother me; it&#8217;s a natural conversation starter.&nbsp; However, I&#8217;ve come to realize that if you&#8217;re someone whose response to this question is complicated, it&#8217;s usually best to answer with the simplest believable answer that you&#8217;re happy with.</em></p><p><em>Why?&nbsp; Well, for one, not all people are interested in complicated answers, so why burden them?&nbsp; It&#8217;s like responding with detailed truth when a stranger asks &#8220;How&#8217;s it going?&#8221;.&nbsp; However, there&#8217;s a more troubling reason, which is that some people may not accept your answer; you see, the &#8216;from&#8217; question is also one of tribe, culture and home.&nbsp; Try as you may, some people will always feel an urge to pigeon-hole you into one of their particular imagined communities.</em></p><p>Don&#8217;t fight it.&nbsp; Don&#8217;t force the <em>from</em>.&nbsp; You think you have the right to tell people whatever &#8216;from&#8217; story you want.&nbsp; But you just have to accept that most people will not tolerate a response that contradicts the microsecond judgements they made before you even opened your mouth.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>My dad is one of those that likes to force the &#8216;from&#8217;.&nbsp; Tells people he&#8217;s from Singapore.&nbsp; Fair enough, he&#8217;s retired there and has lived there over 20 years.&nbsp; But he was born and grew up in Salina, Kansas, USA.&nbsp; And while there may be many good reasons not to tell anyone you&#8217;re from Salina, Kansas, USA, his piercing blue eyes and nordic complexion do make him look more Salina than Singapore.</p><p>Seriously, don&#8217;t fight it.&nbsp; Your &#8216;from&#8217; story might even be legit, as in you <em>actually</em> were born there or <em>did</em> grow up there.&nbsp; With the exception of a very few number of places in the world, like New York City, if your beautiful face or accent doesn&#8217;t match what the average interrogator imagines to be the face of that place, good luck convincing.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>In this respect, I&#8217;m lucky. I was actually born in New York.&nbsp; But I&#8217;m an impostor New Yorker, and I don&#8217;t mean like the hipsters from Brooklyn that tell you they&#8217;re from New York. I mean really an impostor because I was born there, but that&#8217;s it, I&#8217;ve never lived there.&nbsp; My parents, life-long small-town runaways from Salina and Iquitos, Peru, shipped me out of New York a few weeks after I was born.&nbsp; I then grew up in the following sequence of cities: Mainz, Bogota, Mexico City, Summit NJ, Mexico City, Bogota, Miami and Hong Kong.&nbsp; As an adult I&#8217;ve lived in the following sequence: Ann Arbor, Bangkok, Singapore, London, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Hong Kong and Taipei.</p><p>I&#8217;ve been able to distill two key points of interpersonal friction that are often catalyzed by forced &#8216;from&#8217; responses.&nbsp; <strong>First</strong>, are those that simply refuse to accept a &#8216;from&#8217; response that doesn&#8217;t fit their first impressions.&nbsp; Typically these are people that want to categorize you either generally as a foreigner or of a specific tribe (Jew, Arab, Hindu, etc.).&nbsp; <strong>Second</strong>, and more insidious, are those that quickly leap to a conclusion that based on what you&#8217;ve just described, you&#8217;re actually a homeless, untethered rootless nobody.&nbsp; I know this because I&#8217;ve had the fortune of having a few people politely or impolitely actually tell me this.&nbsp; If you happen to have parents of mixed nationality or heritage, you might make the mistake of telling someone you&#8217;re half X and half Y, which is the perfect set-up for them to ask &nbsp; &#8220;So is your Peruvian half the one on top or bottom?&#8221;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>This &#8220;where is home&#8221; issue is a huge deal for people who believe that a specific geographic location must exist as an <em>essential</em> foundational pillar of identity.&nbsp; If they for whatever reason don&#8217;t think you have a home, you&#8217;ll often be viewed with a mixture of suspicion, dislike and pity.&nbsp; I remember when I was 17 I spent a summer in a German university town living with family friends that had a son a year older than me.&nbsp; The chemistry between us wasn&#8217;t great, for reasons I couldn&#8217;t comprehend until a few weeks later when he finally and very emotionally told me he had huge issues with my lack of a fixed home and cultural identity. This ridiculous issue finally convinced me to leave small-town utopia (my foster parents were incredibly understanding) and I had a great time the rest of the summer in Hamburg and Berlin.</p><p>The problem with this &#8216;from&#8217; question is that it forces us to be cultural flag carriers, which is very unfortunate.&nbsp; Think about it: each culture carries its own unique collection of so much objectionable garbage.&nbsp; Fine, so you&#8217;re a post nation-state enlightened type. Still, you can&#8217;t escape the culture, man.&nbsp; And when you give whatever fake from answer you happen to like, you&#8217;re implicitly making a cultural statement and making yourself a flag-bearer of that culture.&nbsp; This sucks, but don&#8217;t fight it.&nbsp; And by the way, none of this I&#8217;m from planet earth BS and let&#8217;s save the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The from question is tied to culture, and culture is unfortunately universally placed on a sacred pinnacle.&nbsp; I&#8217;d be very happy to see a social revolution that saw us proactively questioning culture, starting from our own: how does our culture treat women, minorities and nature?&nbsp; I can&#8217;t think of any culture that would score very highly on these three questions.&nbsp; The most logical place to try solving the world&#8217;s problems is at the local level, in that culture you&#8217;ve been assigned to that you never had a choice of being born into.&nbsp; I think it&#8217;s incredibly damaging that most educational systems explicitly try to indoctrinate young students with a blind love for their culture.&nbsp; The portrayals of other cultures are then by necessity ridiculous caricature, often with patronizing undertones.&nbsp; Schools talk about critical thinking but the reality, especially at the elementary level, is that teachers are petrified of offending parents with the introspective topics of discussion that children would find the most amusing and comprehensible.</p><p>The great thing about the internet, is it allows us to reframe, with almost anarchic power, our own version of local; our own <em>from</em>.&nbsp; The local movement is still necessary and powerful, but now it can be catalyzed with a virtual base of locals that just happen to be physically scattered all over the world.&nbsp; This is why I&#8217;ve decided to start writing my thoughts; in the hope we can become part of a shared from.</p><p>Interestingly, becoming a father has introduced me to what is probably the second-most asked question in my life, and a very appropriate question indeed, though I wish it didn&#8217;t come screaming at me at 6 in the morning every weekend.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>&#8220;Papa, where are we going?!&#8221;</p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>