Aug 09 2022 Newsletter
I had actually written several newsletters, but lost them (and all my email subscriber details) after the mail-out service I was using, Revue, was closed down by Twitter...
Ouch. It's been a year. Here's an overdue update, with a renewed commitment to share more of my thoughts once-a-week :)
Where am I?
Still in Taipei with the family, and thankful for it.
Haven’t flown since landing here in Feb 2020 'for a few weeks' to avoid school closures in Hong Kong. I know the world has changed a lot post covid, but HK is one of those places that has changed the most. I feel that HK’s rebellious spunk has been quashed; there’s no longer any tolerance for living on ‘borrowed time in a borrowed place’ (a phrase beautifully immortalized by writer Richard Hughes). What is it that's no longer tolerated? Ambiguous loyalties, yearnings for exceptionalism and unfiltered attitude.
I get too much credit for the timing of my move to Taiwan; it’s mostly luck. Luck that we came here the day that we did (borders closed a few days later), luck that Taiwan has turned out to be one of the best places to be during Covid (kids schooling was almost uninterrupted), and luck that Taiwan has welcomed my family to live here.
5 Things I've Been Doing:
Reading more books: I’ve read more books in the last 2 years than I read in 10 years prior to moving here. The secret has been no 12-hour-a-day job, less time reading news and joining my father’s Singapore-based book club. I’m currently ⅔ through a masterpiece of writing and analysis: the Power Broker by Robert Caro.
Improving my Chinese: My biggest impediment is that I’m not socializing enough in Chinese, mostly due to lack of time. So I’ve been focusing a lot on my reading skills. Two important developments have been to switch off my Chinese to English dictionary so that explanations are now all in Chinese, and to prohibit myself from daily reading of FT and Bloomberg. I now mostly read a Taiwanese news provider called CNA.
Getting into better shape: This October I’ll be competing in my 4th half-IronMan distance triathlon. My biggest barrier to improving my time has been my terrible running speed. The last few months I’ve been focusing on my running and I can now easily run a 5k at a pace of around 5:15/km, and I’m hoping to bring this to under a 5-minute pace for a 10 kilometer distance. I’ll be running a 10k race in October and a 5k relay race this August.
Working with energy and mining companies: My professional transition since moving to Taipei has been more haphazard than methodical. I’m lucky it’s worked out, but I need to get more methodical. I’ve principally been helping Australian natural gas companies. I worked extensively with one company in the state of Victoria seeking to develop Australia’s largest underground natural gas storage reservoir. This is a fantastic project to assist Australia’s transition from coal to renewable power sources. The storage reservoir acts as a massive battery that can allow natural gas fired peaking stations to be quickly activated when renewable sources are not able to meet demand. I’m also on the Board of a Perth-based company seeking to develop a sizable offshore gas and liquids deposit.
Spending a lot of time with my kids: The most amazing thing of the last 2+ years has been the amount of time I’ve been able to spend with my kids. I loved my job in Hong Kong and never begrudged the consistent 12 hour work-days, but having time to spend with my kids every afternoon has been priceless.
4 Projects I'm Considering:
Publish credit stories on LinkedIn: I continue to follow credit markets and have discussions with friends still active in the space, but I’m not contributing. I’d like to change that by writing credit related pieces weekly on LInkedIn. Those links will also appear on this weekly newsletter, although the focus of this newsletter is more personal. Stories that I’m particularly interested in at the moment are the impact of China’s property slowdown on USD credit markets, the situation in Sri Lanka and Indonesian credits.
Taiwan Energy Strategy Projects: There are two projects that I think Taiwan should be seriously considering: 1) an underground natural gas storage reservoir to provide greater energy security and to complement its planned transition to greater use of renewable sources. Taiwan at the moment really lacks storage reserves; any disruption to supplies could be devastating for the island. 2) Direct High Voltage connectivity with Japan. Direct High Voltage power cables are expensive, but the technology is now proven. Such a cable linking Taiwan to Japan would be expensive (US$2bn?) but is technically feasible. The idea is for Taiwan to purchase nuclear power from Japan and at the same stroke solidify its economic connectivity to Japan. In exchange Taiwan may be able to also export any future excess renewable energy back to Japan. Depending on how the cable is routed, the cable could be beneficial to smaller Japanese islands that are close to Taiwan.
Taiwan Creative and Research Industries Promotion: Taiwan already has a few initiatives to attract talent from abroad, but these are mostly focused on attracting individuals, rather than companies. Now that Hong Kong and Singapore are seemingly becoming more restrictive to foreign residents, I believe there’s an opportunity for Taiwan to promote itself as a wonderful and affordable destination for companies involved in research and creativity. Initially I think Taiwan should focus on the research side of fund management (allowing trade execution and the fund structures to remain in HK and SG), media, advertising and analytics. I hope to be able to work with Taiwan’s National Development Council to develop a plan and address some of the barriers (which I believe mostly involve permitting bureaucracy and ambiguity). I’m also not entirely sure how I can monetize this project, but there should be a way…
Taiwan Biking Initiative: Taiwan, and specifically Taipei, has the potential to become Asia’s capital of family-friendly cycling mobility. There’s no reason why in 10 years people could not start to associate Taipei with bicycles the same way in which the world today thinks of Amsterdam. Taipei is mostly flat, not too spread out, has plenty of road space (though almost none of it is currently allocated to safe bike commuting), and boasts 2 of the world’s largest biking companies. Taiwan derives almost no value-add from the car industry, although its urban planning bends over backwards for the car and does relatively little for the bicycle. I’d like to work on projects to convert one lane of a few of Taipei’s larger roads to dedicated (segregated) bicycle lanes to facilitate safe commuting. I’d also like to see two of Taipei’s main arteries adopt a Sunday ‘car-free’ strategy to facilitate urban family riding across the city.
I look forward to connecting with you again next week, with what will hopefully be a smaller note with a few more focused thoughts I’m exploring and keen to share.
Have a great week,